Maritime Security and Safety
94 Days and Counting: The Strait of Hormuz Remains a Ghost Waterway
94 Days and Counting: The Strait of Hormuz Remains a Ghost Waterway
Global shipping crisis deepens as executives refuse to risk vessels despite Trump’s promises of imminent reopening
By Oghenewoke Osaweren | Waterways News Correspondent, Lagos
The world’s most consequential maritime chokepoint entered its 94th day of near-total paralysis on Monday, with shipping executives gathered in Athens warning that no meaningful resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely until Washington and Tehran reach a durable, enforceable peace agreement.
The stark reality on the water tells its own story. According to research firm Kpler, only seven ships passed through the strait last Friday — five entering and two exiting — while just four additional vessels transited over the weekend. Under normal conditions, approximately 100 cargo-carrying vessels move through the waterway daily.
“Traffic still remains exceptionally depleted,” Matt Smith, Director of Commodity Research at Kpler, told CNN. “Barring a handful of tankers crossing each day, the strait remains essentially closed.”
The World’s Largest Oil Disruption
The International Energy Agency has described the halting of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as “the largest oil supply disruption in the history” of the global market — bigger even than the oil shocks of the 1970s.
Since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran nine weeks ago, the strait — through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas is shipped during peacetime — has become the chokepoint of the global economy, stoking fears of a worldwide recession.
About 2,000 ships currently remain stranded in the Gulf, waiting to be allowed through. Over 22,500 mariners are trapped on more than 1,550 commercial vessels in and around the strait, according to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine.
Athens Summit: Confidence, Not Convoys, Is the Key
The world’s most powerful shipping executives are convening this week in Athens for the annual Posidonia International Shipping Exhibition. The Strait of Hormuz has dominated every conversation.
President Donald Trump has insisted the strait’s reopening is imminent, with administration officials pointing to the trickle of vessels getting through as evidence of progress. But industry leaders are not persuaded.
Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles — who spent half a decade working for American President Lines in the Middle East — told CNN that sporadic transits are not enough.
“The larger issue is whether carriers, insurers and vessel operators have enough confidence in the long-term security environment to resume regular service patterns,” Seroka said. It will take more than a “limited number of successful transits” to restore that confidence, he added.
Project Freedom’ Falls Short
A US military initiative last month — dubbed “Project Freedom” — sought to escort commercial vessels out of the strait under naval protection. War-risk insurance for tankers now prices at 8.0 times the pre-crisis level, with six P&I clubs withdrawing cover. The initiative proved short-lived.
Despite subsequent reports of renewed naval escorts, a spokesperson for US Central Command contradicted those claims outright.
“Though US forces are not escorting, we continue to communicate and coordinate with commercial ships seeking to freely and safely transit the Strait of Hormuz,” said Captain Tim Hawkins, spokesman for the command.
An oil industry source was blunt in their assessment: “Our general sense is that the threat to ships crossing the Strait is still significant, and we will not see a full resumption of traffic through the strait until there is a stronger guarantee of safe passage.”
Fresh Attack on Monday
Further underscoring the danger, a cargo vessel travelling in the northern Persian Gulf was struck by an unknown projectile on Monday, according to a British military-run maritime security organisation. The US has also said it will take six months to clear mines it believes Iran has laid across the strait. There have now been 39 vessel strikes in the region and 11 deaths recorded since the conflict began, according to the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
Container Giants Trapped; Food Supplies at Risk
The crisis has moved well beyond oil. Container ships that ordinarily deliver food, medicine, and consumer goods to Gulf states are also paralysed. Maersk, one of the world’s largest container shipping firms, has not had a ship depart since mid-May — with six of its vessels still stranded in the Gulf.
Jebel Ali Port in Dubai, the largest container port in the Middle East and a critical transshipment hub for the entire region, is experiencing severe congestion from vessels that have diverted following the closure.
Shipping industry sources are emphatic that when the strait does eventually reopen, no tolls or discriminatory transit fees must be imposed.
Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary General of the IMO, used his address to the Athens conference on Monday to hammer the point home: “As shipping comes under increasing pressure from geopolitical events, we must do all we can to work together to always put the safety of seafarers first. I call on the industry to stand with IMO in defending the principle of freedom of navigation, including the rejection of tolls and discriminatory transit measures.”
Shipping Rates Soar; Recovery Will Take Time
For tanker operators operating outside the Gulf, the crisis has been remarkably profitable. Heidmar, a Greek tanker firm, reported a more than 200% surge in revenue in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year — a direct consequence of what its CEO, Pankaj Khanna, described as “historically elevated” shipping rates.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth acknowledged the long road to normalisation. “You need new ships to come back in, and ship owners have to be comfortable sending crews back after being trapped for months,” Wirth told Bloomberg on Friday. “Clearing out inventories to allow oil fields to restart and repair damage won’t happen overnight.”
The waterway’s future status will depend heavily on both the regional security situation and the outcome of ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran.
For Nigeria and other African nations that depend on stable oil pricing and global freight networks, the message from Athens is sobering: the world’s most critical maritime corridor remains, for all practical purposes, closed — and no one is prepared to say when it will truly reopen.
EDITOR’S NOTE: The Strait of Hormuz crisis began on March 2, 2026, following joint US-Israeli strikes on Tehran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently declared the strait closed. Waterways.ng will continue to track developments as they affect Nigerian maritime trade and the global energy market.
FIVE DEAD, 41 MISSING AS FIRE GUTS INDONESIAN FERRY CARRYING 271
By Raymond Gold | Waterways News
At least five people are dead and 41 others remain missing after a passenger ferry caught fire off Indonesia’s Madura Island on Sunday, triggering a major multi-agency search and rescue operation involving naval and civilian vessels.
The Mutiara Sentosa 2, sailing the roughly 40-hour Surabaya to Makassar route with 271 people on board, including 232 passengers and 39 crew members, caught fire between 6 a.m. and 7 a.m. local time in waters off Sumenep regency, Indonesia’s National Search and Rescue Agency said. The vessel was also reportedly carrying 181 vehicles, mostly trucks, and an excavator.
About an hour after the blaze started, ferry operator PT Atosim Lampung Pelayaran alerted the Surabaya Search and Rescue Office, after the vessel’s captain radioed a distress report saying the ship was ablaze near the northern tip of Madura Island. Contact with the vessel was then lost.
By 9:45 a.m., rescuers had pinpointed the ferry’s location, roughly 19 nautical miles north of Buruan Sapudi Island, after reaching the nearby cargo ship Meratus Project 3. That vessel, however, could not approach the burning ferry closely because it was carrying a flammable load. A tugboat and another passing vessel became the first responders, beginning evacuations shortly before 10 a.m., before more ships joined the operation.
By Sunday afternoon, several nearby vessels had rescued 225 passengers and crew and recovered five bodies, with 41 people still unaccounted for. Basarnas dispatched a rescue vessel from Surabaya, though officials estimated a six-hour transit time to the scene, and a rigid inflatable boat sent from the Sumenep rescue post was forced to turn back due to rough seas and high waves. An Indonesian naval warship has since joined the search.
The cause of the fire has not been established and remains under investigation. It is the second major Indonesian maritime distress incident in as many months. Last month, rescuers searched for survivors after the KM Nurul Salsa suffered engine failure and sank, with five survivors, including a seven-year-old girl, recovered days later.
NIGERIA WATCH
Indonesia’s tragedy off Madura should sound familiar to anyone tracking Nigeria’s own inland and coastal waterways. Strip away the geography and the pattern is the same one that recurs on the Niger, the Benue and the Niger Delta creeks every rainy season. Overloaded or ill-equipped vessels, delayed distress reporting, and rescue assets that arrive too late or cannot reach the casualty at all.
The detail that should trouble Nigerian regulators most is the nearby cargo ship that could not assist the burning ferry because it was itself carrying flammable cargo. This is a reminder that firefighting capability, not just headcount, is the real test of vessel safety. NIMASA and NIWA have made real strides on the Seafarer Discharge Book digitization and the CVFF portal, but neither agency has articulated a clear standard for onboard fire-suppression systems on domestic ferries, particularly those plying the country’s inland waterways that operators like WABOTAN and ATBOWATON know well.
There is also a lesson for NIWA and LASWA in the response timeline. Indonesian rescuers, despite dispatching a navy warship and multiple agency assets, still needed roughly six hours to reach the vessel, and one rescue boat had to turn back in rough seas. Nigeria’s own record on Benue and Niger Delta boat accidents shows the same gap between a distress call and an effective response, a gap that NIWA’s enforcement push and the LASWA-Interferry Ferry Safety Development Programme are meant to close, but which will keep costing lives until vessel-side fire and lifesaving equipment compliance is treated with the same urgency as overloading and life-jacket enforcement.
Maritime Security and Safety
HORMUZ SHADOW FLEET: HOW A WAR-ZONE WORKAROUND IS QUIETLY KEEPING THE WORLD’S OIL MARKET ALIVE
HORMUZ SHADOW FLEET: HOW A WAR-ZONE WORKAROUND IS QUIETLY KEEPING THE WORLD’S OIL MARKET ALIVE
By Oghenewoke Osaweren | Waterways News
Beneath the surface calm of a fragile Middle East ceasefire, a covert maritime operation is doing what diplomacy has not been able to do. It is keeping oil flowing out of the world’s most contested waterway. Tankers with their transponders deliberately switched off are meeting far offshore, transferring millions of barrels ship-to-ship, and disappearing back into commercial shipping lanes before regulators, insurers, or belligerents can react.
This is not a new tactic. It is the same “dark fleet” playbook sanctioned Iranian, Russian, and Venezuelan crude have relied on for years. What has changed is who is now using it, and why a legitimate, US-escorted oil trade has been forced to borrow the tradecraft of sanctions evasion just to survive.
THE NUMBERS TELL A STORY OF FRAGILE NORMALITY
Satellite imagery over the Omani port of Sohar recorded at least seven tanker-pair transfers in a single day this week, several involving supertanker-class vessels capable of moving a combined 8 million barrels. Two weeks earlier, at the height of renewed US-Iran hostilities, that same stretch of water saw only two such transfers. The swing illustrates how tightly oil-market stability in 2026 is now tethered not to production levels, but to a handful of shipowners’ daily risk calculus.
Even with the rebound, flows remain a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels a day that once transited the Strait of Hormuz before the war. US officials now put total Gulf exit volumes at around 13 million barrels daily, split roughly evenly between the strait itself and bypass pipelines built precisely to reduce dependence on Hormuz. American forces say they have personally escorted close to 500 million barrels out of the strait since May, a scale of military involvement in commercial shipping rarely seen outside declared war.
WHAT THIS MEANS BEYOND THE GULF
For Nigeria and other non-Gulf producers, a Hormuz shuttle trade that works, however imperfectly, is a double-edged development. It has so far kept a full-blown price shock at bay, with Brent oscillating between $80 and $100 rather than spiking uncontrollably, which shields Nigeria’s import-heavy fuel supply chain and naira-denominated energy costs from the worst-case scenario. But it also means Gulf producers are adapting fast enough to defend their market share even under bombardment, a resilience that could blunt any window Nigerian and West African crude grades might otherwise have gained as buyers hedged away from Hormuz-dependent barrels.
There is also a governance dimension worth flagging for Nigerian maritime observers. The same AIS-dark, ship-to-ship transfer tactics now legitimising emergency oil flows out of the Gulf are structurally identical to the techniques long used for illegal bunkering and crude theft in the Niger Delta and Gulf of Guinea. When a G7 navy escorts and effectively normalises transponder-dark transfers as sound commercial practice under conflict conditions, it complicates the international case for treating the same behaviour as inherently criminal in West African waters, an inconsistency Nigerian regulators and NIMASA may eventually have to reckon with.
A MARKET RUNNING ON DELAYED CARGOES, NOT CONFIDENCE
Perhaps the clearest sign of how strained the system remains: buyers of Emirati crude, including cargoes tied to ADNOC tenders, are only now receiving shipments that were due weeks ago, some having incurred demurrage costs on ships hired to collect oil that never showed up on schedule. ADNOC’s shipping unit has itself had to book a tanker for a Sohar ship-to-ship pickup, effectively routing its own state oil company’s cargo through the same shadow logistics used to dodge attacks.
The picture that emerges is not one of a market that has stabilised, but of a market that has adapted to instability, one satellite pass at a time.
Maritime Security and Safety
Search Continues for 17 Missing as Vietnamese Cargo Vessel Sinks in South China Sea
Search Continues for 17 Missing as Vietnamese Cargo Vessel Sinks in South China Sea
Rescuers are still combing waters near a contested reef system in the South China Sea after a Vietnamese-flagged cargo vessel went down over the weekend, leaving 17 crew members unaccounted for.
Of the 62 people who were aboard the vessel, the Khoi Nguyen 18, when it ran into difficulty, 45 have so far been pulled to safety, Vietnamese officials confirmed.
According to Chinese state media, the roughly 70-metre freighter got into trouble close to Yongshu Reef, also called Fiery Cross Reef, off China’s Hainan province. A Chinese rescue vessel, the Nanhai Jiu 115, first picked up what appeared to be a distress flare from the stricken ship on Saturday evening, shortly before 6:30pm local time.
The search-and-rescue effort has drawn in a sizeable multinational response: six Chinese vessels, a rescue helicopter, and a Vietnamese ship have all joined the operation, state news agency Xinhua reported.
A flashpoint waterway
The sinking adds to safety concerns in one of the world’s most disputed maritime zones. China claims sovereignty over the vast majority of the South China Sea — a position an international tribunal rejected in a landmark 2016 ruling brought by the Philippines.
Among the most contentious areas are the Spratly Islands (known in China as the Nansha Islands), where Beijing has built airstrips and fortified artificial islands. China’s claims overlap with those of Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and Taiwan, making the region a persistent source of regional friction and, as this incident shows, a challenging one for maritime emergency response.
Search efforts were ongoing at the time of filing.
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