Maritime Security and Safety
94 Days and Counting: The Strait of Hormuz Remains a Ghost Waterway
94 Days and Counting: The Strait of Hormuz Remains a Ghost Waterway
Global shipping crisis deepens as executives refuse to risk vessels despite Trump’s promises of imminent reopening
By Oghenewoke Osaweren | Waterways News Correspondent, Lagos
The world’s most consequential maritime chokepoint entered its 94th day of near-total paralysis on Monday, with shipping executives gathered in Athens warning that no meaningful resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely until Washington and Tehran reach a durable, enforceable peace agreement.
The stark reality on the water tells its own story. According to research firm Kpler, only seven ships passed through the strait last Friday — five entering and two exiting — while just four additional vessels transited over the weekend. Under normal conditions, approximately 100 cargo-carrying vessels move through the waterway daily.
“Traffic still remains exceptionally depleted,” Matt Smith, Director of Commodity Research at Kpler, told CNN. “Barring a handful of tankers crossing each day, the strait remains essentially closed.”
The World’s Largest Oil Disruption
The International Energy Agency has described the halting of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as “the largest oil supply disruption in the history” of the global market — bigger even than the oil shocks of the 1970s.
Since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran nine weeks ago, the strait — through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas is shipped during peacetime — has become the chokepoint of the global economy, stoking fears of a worldwide recession.
About 2,000 ships currently remain stranded in the Gulf, waiting to be allowed through. Over 22,500 mariners are trapped on more than 1,550 commercial vessels in and around the strait, according to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine.
Athens Summit: Confidence, Not Convoys, Is the Key
The world’s most powerful shipping executives are convening this week in Athens for the annual Posidonia International Shipping Exhibition. The Strait of Hormuz has dominated every conversation.
President Donald Trump has insisted the strait’s reopening is imminent, with administration officials pointing to the trickle of vessels getting through as evidence of progress. But industry leaders are not persuaded.
Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles — who spent half a decade working for American President Lines in the Middle East — told CNN that sporadic transits are not enough.
“The larger issue is whether carriers, insurers and vessel operators have enough confidence in the long-term security environment to resume regular service patterns,” Seroka said. It will take more than a “limited number of successful transits” to restore that confidence, he added.
Project Freedom’ Falls Short
A US military initiative last month — dubbed “Project Freedom” — sought to escort commercial vessels out of the strait under naval protection. War-risk insurance for tankers now prices at 8.0 times the pre-crisis level, with six P&I clubs withdrawing cover. The initiative proved short-lived.
Despite subsequent reports of renewed naval escorts, a spokesperson for US Central Command contradicted those claims outright.
“Though US forces are not escorting, we continue to communicate and coordinate with commercial ships seeking to freely and safely transit the Strait of Hormuz,” said Captain Tim Hawkins, spokesman for the command.
An oil industry source was blunt in their assessment: “Our general sense is that the threat to ships crossing the Strait is still significant, and we will not see a full resumption of traffic through the strait until there is a stronger guarantee of safe passage.”
Fresh Attack on Monday
Further underscoring the danger, a cargo vessel travelling in the northern Persian Gulf was struck by an unknown projectile on Monday, according to a British military-run maritime security organisation. The US has also said it will take six months to clear mines it believes Iran has laid across the strait. There have now been 39 vessel strikes in the region and 11 deaths recorded since the conflict began, according to the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
Container Giants Trapped; Food Supplies at Risk
The crisis has moved well beyond oil. Container ships that ordinarily deliver food, medicine, and consumer goods to Gulf states are also paralysed. Maersk, one of the world’s largest container shipping firms, has not had a ship depart since mid-May — with six of its vessels still stranded in the Gulf.
Jebel Ali Port in Dubai, the largest container port in the Middle East and a critical transshipment hub for the entire region, is experiencing severe congestion from vessels that have diverted following the closure.
Shipping industry sources are emphatic that when the strait does eventually reopen, no tolls or discriminatory transit fees must be imposed.
Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary General of the IMO, used his address to the Athens conference on Monday to hammer the point home: “As shipping comes under increasing pressure from geopolitical events, we must do all we can to work together to always put the safety of seafarers first. I call on the industry to stand with IMO in defending the principle of freedom of navigation, including the rejection of tolls and discriminatory transit measures.”
Shipping Rates Soar; Recovery Will Take Time
For tanker operators operating outside the Gulf, the crisis has been remarkably profitable. Heidmar, a Greek tanker firm, reported a more than 200% surge in revenue in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year — a direct consequence of what its CEO, Pankaj Khanna, described as “historically elevated” shipping rates.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth acknowledged the long road to normalisation. “You need new ships to come back in, and ship owners have to be comfortable sending crews back after being trapped for months,” Wirth told Bloomberg on Friday. “Clearing out inventories to allow oil fields to restart and repair damage won’t happen overnight.”
The waterway’s future status will depend heavily on both the regional security situation and the outcome of ongoing diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran.
For Nigeria and other African nations that depend on stable oil pricing and global freight networks, the message from Athens is sobering: the world’s most critical maritime corridor remains, for all practical purposes, closed — and no one is prepared to say when it will truly reopen.
EDITOR’S NOTE: The Strait of Hormuz crisis began on March 2, 2026, following joint US-Israeli strikes on Tehran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently declared the strait closed. Waterways.ng will continue to track developments as they affect Nigerian maritime trade and the global energy market.
NIWA Cracks Down on Life Jacket Violations, Vows Strict Enforcement in Warri
By Okeoghene Onoriobe | Waterways News Correspondent
The National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA) has thrown its full weight behind the enforcement of its ‘No Life Jacket, No Sailing’ directive, warning that the policy will be applied without exception across Nigeria’s inland waterways.
The renewed commitment was announced during a one-day sensitisation and enlightenment programme hosted by NIWA’s Warri Area Office at NPA Waterside, Warri South Local Government Area of Delta State, as part of the Authority’s 2026 waterway safety awareness calendar.
NIWA Area Manager, Rufus Oladimeji, who addressed boat operators, waterway users and key stakeholders at the event, said the campaign was designed to deepen safety consciousness and reinforce the Authority’s zero-tolerance stance on non-compliance.
“We are here today at NPA Waterside, Warri, with one clear message that will guide all our operations going forward: No Life Jacket, No Sailing,” Oladimeji told participants, stressing that the directive was non-negotiable under NIWA’s mandate to guarantee the safe movement of passengers and goods on inland waterways.
He urged all boat operators and their passengers to treat the wearing of life jackets as routine practice before any trip — not a voluntary gesture, but a fundamental safety obligation.
The Chairman of the NPA Boat Owners Association, Paul Wilikie, offered assurances on behalf of operators, pledging that association members would align with NIWA’s safety directives. He said boat owners recognised the importance of safety compliance not only in protecting lives but also in sustaining the long-term viability of water transportation in the region.
The sensitisation exercise brought together a broad cross-section of stakeholders, including representatives of the Nigeria Police Force, the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), traditional rulers, community leaders, water transport unions and boat operators — reflecting the multi-agency approach NIWA is deploying to drive behavioural change on the waterways.
A particularly notable feature of the day’s event was the distribution of life jackets to boat operators on the spot — a practical step aimed at eliminating the excuse of unavailability and encouraging immediate compliance.
The Warri exercise is part of NIWA’s wider 2026 safety campaign, which seeks to reduce the frequency of preventable water transport accidents through stakeholder engagement, targeted public education and firmer enforcement of safety standards across the country’s inland waterway network.
Navy Commissions Three Warships as Tinubu Declares End of Piracy in Nigerian Waters
By Ighoyota Onaibre | Waterways News Correspondent | Lagos, June 2, 2026
President Bola Tinubu has declared Nigeria’s territorial waters free of piracy, crediting the Nigerian Navy with a sustained campaign that has transformed the security landscape across the country’s vast maritime domain — a development with far-reaching implications for waterway commerce, offshore operations and Nigeria’s broader blue economy.
Speaking on Monday at the 2026 International Fleet Review held at the Eko Atlantic Waterfront in Lagos, Tinubu commissioned three new naval vessels — NNS Oloibiri, NNS Mambila and NNS Gurara — as part of activities marking the Nigerian Navy’s 70th anniversary. The President served as Reviewing Officer at the event, which featured a parade of warships from Nigeria and allied nations.
According to a statement issued by the President’s Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, the newly commissioned platforms will reinforce naval operations targeting piracy, crude oil theft, illegal fishing and maritime smuggling across the Gulf of Guinea — a critical waterway corridor through which billions of dollars in trade and energy exports pass annually.
“Through the effective integration of surveillance systems, rapid response mechanisms and robust enforcement operations, you have successfully eradicated piracy in our waters and significantly curtailed crude oil theft and associated maritime crimes,” Tinubu told naval officers at the ceremony. “These achievements have enhanced the security of our littoral communities and contributed to increased oil production, thereby supporting national economic growth.”
For Nigeria’s waterways sector, the President’s remarks signal a more secure environment for vessel operators, ferry services, fishing communities and cargo movements along the country’s coastline and river networks. Security concerns in the Niger Delta and the broader Gulf of Guinea have long deterred investment and disrupted the livelihoods of millions who depend on water-based transport and commerce.
Tinubu described Nigeria’s maritime domain as a cornerstone of the national economy and a principal gateway for international trade, pledging continued government investment in modern naval platforms, surveillance technology, personnel welfare and capacity building.
“Nigeria’s maritime domain, endowed with immense natural wealth, remains a vital pillar of our national economy,” he said.
The President also acknowledged the Navy’s expanding counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operations on inland and coastal waterways, praising the Special Boat Service for its performance in high-risk engagements and expressing confidence in the newly inducted Nigerian Navy Marines.
Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Idi Abbas, attributed the Navy’s operational gains to sustained government backing, strategic acquisitions and stronger inter-agency collaboration. He said improvements in surveillance infrastructure and modern platforms had significantly upgraded Nigeria’s maritime security architecture, and reaffirmed the loyalty of all naval personnel to the Commander-in-Chief.
The fleet review drew naval chiefs from Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Benin, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, reflecting the growing regional consensus around collective maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea. Delegations from European countries, former Nigerian service chiefs and senior government officials were also in attendance.
Established on June 19, 1956 as a branch of the Royal Nigerian Navy, the service has since grown into a major maritime force responsible for securing Nigeria’s 853-kilometre coastline and an Exclusive Economic Zone of approximately 200 nautical miles — one of the largest maritime jurisdictions on the African continent
Editorial
WHEN SHIPS BECOME WEAPONS OF WAR: How the Iran-Israel Conflict Is Redrawing the Map of Global Shipping
WHEN SHIPS BECOME WEAPONS OF WAR: How the Iran-Israel Conflict Is Redrawing the Map of Global Shipping
By Raymond Gold O | Waterways News Editorial | Saturday 30 May 2026
The Iran-Israel conflict is no longer confined to the skies above the Middle East or the disputed terrain of Gaza and the Golan Heights. It has migrated — quietly but consequentially — onto the blue expanse of the world’s most critical waterways. For maritime professionals, naval strategists, port operators, cargo insurers, and seafarers navigating the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Indian Ocean, this war is no longer someone else’s problem. It has become their daily operational reality.
Ships are being rerouted. Insurance premiums are spiking. Oil flows are under threat. And the geopolitical alliances forming around this conflict are directly determining which straits remain open, which ports face fresh sanctions exposure, and where the next maritime flashpoint will ignite.
This is not abstract geopolitics. This is the business of shipping in 2026 — and Nigeria’s maritime sector is not insulated from its effects
THE ALLIANCE MAP: WHO STANDS WHERE
To understand the maritime dimensions of this conflict, you must first understand its political geography. The Iran-Israel confrontation has drawn much of the world into implicit or explicit alignment — and those alignments have direct consequences for trade routes, port access, and vessel safety ratings.
Iran’s Main Allies — Russia, China, North Korea, Syria
Iran is not isolated. It enjoys the backing — overt or quiet — of major powers with significant maritime footprints of their own. Russia, whose Black Sea fleet has already been tested by war in Ukraine, shares with Iran a mutual interest in eroding Western maritime dominance. China, the world’s largest trading nation and a dominant force in global shipbuilding and port infrastructure, has deep economic ties to Tehran that make full sanctions enforcement politically complicated. North Korea has supplied Iran with munitions, while Syria provides Iran with an arc of strategic depth running towards the Mediterranean.
For shipping, this matters: vessels flying flags or carrying cargo linked to these nations increasingly face dual scrutiny — from Western navies enforcing sanctions and from insurance markets pricing in the elevated political risk.
Israel’s Main Allies — United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France
Israel’s Western alliance brings with it the world’s most powerful naval forces. The United States Fifth Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain, is the primary maritime security guarantor for the Persian Gulf and the wider Arabian Sea. The UK’s Royal Navy and French naval assets in the Indian Ocean supplement American power projection. These alliances mean that Israeli-aligned shipping corridors enjoy significant military protection — but they also mean that vessels operating in contested waters must navigate the fog of potential escalation between great power navies.
THE GREY ZONE: NEUTRAL PLAYERS AND THEIR MARITIME IMPLICATIONS
Some of the most consequential actors in this conflict are the ones who have refused to take a side — or who occupy deliberately ambiguous positions.
True Neutrals — Turkey, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Singapore
Turkey controls the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles — the narrow straits connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. Its neutrality is strategic and jealously guarded. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, once firm adversaries of Iran, have in recent years moved towards diplomatic normalisation with Tehran even as they maintain deep security ties with Washington. Their ports — Jeddah, Dammam, Abu Dhabi, Dubai’s Jebel Ali — remain among the world’s busiest, and their continued neutrality is essential to keeping Gulf trade flowing.
Singapore, the global hub for maritime finance, ship management, and flag registration, has carefully avoided alignment — its position as a neutral clearinghouse for global shipping depends on it.
Neutral but Pro-Iran — Qatar, Iraq, Lebanon, Venezuela
Qatar hosts the largest US military base in the Middle East at Al Udeid, yet maintains warm ties with Iran and has historically served as a back-channel between Washington and Tehran. Iraq’s oil exports flow through the Persian Gulf on routes that Iran could interdict at short notice. Lebanon, through Hezbollah, gives Iran a Mediterranean presence. Venezuela, cut off from Western markets by sanctions, trades with Iran in oil under the radar of Western enforcement — a relationship with direct implications for tanker tracking and compliance teams.
Neutral but Pro-Israel — India, Japan, Australia, South Korea
India is particularly significant for Nigeria’s maritime calculations. As one of Nigeria’s major crude oil buyers and a growing presence in the Indian Ocean shipping lanes, India’s alignment — however informal — with Israel complicates its historically non-aligned posture. Japan and South Korea, major importers of Gulf oil, have strong incentives to keep the Strait of Hormuz open regardless of political allegiance.
THE FOUR MARITIME FLASHPOINTS
For the global shipping industry, the conflict has crystallised around four specific pressure points, each with its own risk profile and cost implications.
- Red Sea Disruptions and the Houthi Factor
Since late 2023, Yemen’s Houthi movement — an Iranian-backed armed group — has conducted systematic attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Using anti-ship missiles, drones, and in some cases attempted vessel seizures, the Houthis have turned one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors into a hazardous transit zone.
The Red Sea handles roughly 12–15% of global trade, including a significant share of goods moving between Asia and Europe. Major carriers — Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd — suspended Red Sea transits at various points, forcing rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. The operational and cost consequences have been severe. - Strait of Hormuz: The World’s Most Critical Chokepoint
Approximately 20% of global oil supply — and roughly one-third of the world’s liquefied natural gas — passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close this strait in the event of escalating conflict, and its naval forces have the asymmetric capability to make that threat credible through mines, fast-attack craft, and shore-based missile batteries.
A closure — even a partial or temporary one — would send oil prices spiralling, trigger emergency releases from strategic reserves, and force tanker operators to seek alternative routes that don’t exist at scale. For Nigeria, an OPEC member whose fiscal revenues depend heavily on crude oil prices, a Hormuz closure could paradoxically boost short-term export earnings while simultaneously driving up the cost of refined product imports and compounding the country’s fuel supply challenges. - War Risk Insurance Premiums
The maritime insurance market has responded to the conflict with significant premium increases for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and adjacent waters. War risk additional premiums — charged on top of standard P&I cover — have surged for voyages through designated Joint War Committee listed areas.
For Nigerian shipping operators and charterers moving cargo through these waters, the cost implications are direct. War risk premiums add to voyage costs, which ultimately feed into freight rates and the landed cost of imports. Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported refined petroleum products means that elevated shipping costs in the Middle East translate into domestic pricing pressures. - Cape of Good Hope Rerouting: Weeks and Millions
With the Red Sea compromised, vessels rerouting from Asia to Europe — or vice versa — must add approximately 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles to their voyages by detouring around the southern tip of Africa. This adds roughly 10–14 days of additional sailing time per voyage, with corresponding increases in fuel consumption, crew costs, and vessel utilisation.
For West African ports, including Lagos’s Apapa and the Lekki Deep Sea Port, this rerouting creates both opportunity and challenge. On one hand, Cape of Good Hope traffic passes through or near West African waters, and some regional carriers have seen increased demand for transshipment and feeder services. On the other hand, the global supply chain disruption ripples into lead times for imports and the reliability of export schedules.
NIGERIA WATCH: LOCAL IMPLICATIONS OF A GLOBAL CONFLICT
Nigeria is not a party to the Iran-Israel conflict, but it is not a bystander either. Several dimensions of the conflict intersect directly with Nigeria’s maritime interests:
Crude Oil Price Dynamics: As a major oil producer, Nigeria benefits from elevated oil prices — but only if it can sustain production levels and move cargo reliably. War-driven oil price spikes are historically volatile and can reverse sharply when conflict dynamics shift or supply alternatives emerge.
Freight Rate Pressures: Nigerian importers — particularly those sourcing goods from Asia — are already contending with elevated freight rates partly attributable to Red Sea disruptions. The rerouting premium is real, and its effects on consumer prices and import costs are tangible.
NIMASA and War Risk Compliance: The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) has an active role in monitoring the exposure of Nigerian-flagged vessels and Nigerian seafarers to conflict zones. Any escalation that expands the geographic scope of war risk designations adds to the compliance burden for vessel owners operating under the Nigerian flag.
Seafarer Safety: An estimated tens of thousands of Nigerian seafarers work aboard internationally operated vessels. Many of these vessels transit through the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Persian Gulf. Their safety — and the welfare obligations of their employers — is directly implicated by the conflict’s maritime dimension.
The Hormuz-Nigeria Oil Price Link: Any disruption to Hormuz flows tightens global oil supply and, in the short term, elevates benchmark prices. Nigeria’s crude export revenues — critical to the federation’s fiscal position and the naira’s exchange rate stability — are sensitive to this dynamic in ways that make the Strait of Hormuz, 6,000 kilometres away, as relevant to Abuja’s budget planners as to Gulf traders.
CONCLUSION: THE SEA DOESN’T CARE — BUT NIGERIA MUST
There is an old maritime truth that the sea respects no politics. Storms don’t negotiate; currents don’t take sides; tides are indifferent to the calculations of generals and chancellors. But the humans who govern access to straits, who set war risk designations, who command naval patrols and arm proxy forces — they decide what moves across the water and at what cost.
The Iran-Israel conflict is reshaping the architecture of global maritime trade in real time.
For Nigeria — a coastal nation, an oil exporter, a major importer of refined products, and a country with thousands of seafarers at sea — the strategic and commercial stakes are not theoretical. They are present, immediate, and growing.
Nigeria’s maritime institutions, policymakers, and private sector operators need a clear-eyed view of this conflict’s maritime geometry — not as distant news, but as an operational variable that belongs on every risk register, every voyage plan, and every budget projection for as long as this war endures.
Chief Raymond Gold, is the CVO of Waterways Integrated Synergy Ltd, Co-publisher and Research Reporter at Waterways News
Waterways News -www.waterwaysnews.ng – is Nigeria’s foremost specialist publication covering the maritime, shipping, ports, and blue economy sectors.
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