Blue Economy
CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE: How the US-Israel War on Iran Is Shaking Nigeria’s Shipping Sector
CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE: How the US-Israel War on Iran Is Shaking Nigeria’s Shipping Sector
Joint US-Israeli strikes launched on February 28 under Operation Epic Fury — condemned internationally as attacks launched while nuclear negotiations were ongoing — have shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, rerouted the world’s shipping fleets around Africa, and set freight costs on course for a sharp climb. Nigerian importers, exporters, and port operators are now assessing what comes next.
By the Maritime Affairs Desk, waterwaysnews.ng
Lagos | March 3, 2026
The world did not see it coming — or at least, the world had reason to believe it would not. The United States and Israel launched coordinated air strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting military facilities, nuclear sites and national leadership in what Washington designated Operation Epic Fury. The strikes came, Al Jazeera reported, even as US-Iran nuclear negotiations were ongoing through Omani mediators in Geneva — a fact that drew immediate, sharp condemnation from governments across the globe and left the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities. For Nigeria’s maritime sector, the diplomatic and legal controversies of how the war began matter less, right now, than its hard economic consequences — consequences that are already materialising at the docks of Apapa, Tin Can Island, and Onne.
The war is now in its third day. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, transmitting warnings via VHF radio to vessels in the waterway that no ship is permitted to pass. Though no formal blockade has been declared, the impact has been equivalent to one. Ship-tracking data shows tanker traffic has dropped by approximately 70 percent, with over 150 ships anchored outside the strait. At least five tankers have been damaged. Two crew members have been killed. The world’s largest shipping companies — Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM — have all suspended operations through the waterway and pivoted their fleets toward a longer, costlier alternative: the Cape of Good Hope, around the southern tip of Africa.
That rerouting is not merely a logistical inconvenience. It is a structural shock to global trade — and Nigeria sits squarely in its path.
THE STRIKES THAT STARTED A WAR
Al Jazeera’s reporting on the origins of the conflict is unambiguous in its framing: the US and Israel launched their offensive while nuclear talks were still under way. Omani mediators had announced progress in Geneva negotiations, where Iran had reportedly agreed to zero uranium stockpiling and full verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Washington’s decision to strike regardless drew Oman’s public dismay, with its foreign minister urging Washington ‘not to get sucked in’ further and calling on the UN Security Council to convene an emergency meeting. The EU urged ‘maximum restraint,’ and the UN’s Guterres stated plainly that the US and Israeli use of force — and Iran’s subsequent retaliatory strikes — ‘undermine international peace and security.’
Iran’s retaliation has been extensive. Since February 28, Tehran has launched waves of missiles and drones at Israeli territory and at US military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq. The IRGC has attacked 27 bases where US troops are deployed. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the head of the IRGC were confirmed killed in the opening strikes. Four US service members have been killed in action. Explosions have been reported in Dubai, Cyprus, and across the wider Gulf region. Qatar — host to the Al Udeid Air Base and one of the world’s largest LNG exporters — has suspended all air navigation and grounded all Qatar Airways flights indefinitely.
FREIGHT COSTS: THE IMMEDIATE BLOW TO NIGERIA
Nigerian shippers are already bracing for significant pain. Aminu Umar, president of the Nigerian Chamber of Shipping, was among the first in the sector to sound the alarm in the hours after the strikes began.
“We are going to see longer days of cargo arrivals, and a very high freight rate coming up from tomorrow. If oil price jumps, which is most likely, there is no way freight will not go up, because bunker prices will also rise.”
— Aminu Umar, President, Nigerian Chamber of Shipping (BusinessDay)
His warning is being confirmed in real time. According to BusinessDay, container rates for cargo into Nigeria are set at $4,600 for a 20-foot dry van container and $5,600 for a 40-foot container from March 10 through at least March 21. These are not the final figures: the Sea Empowerment and Research Center (SEREC), a Nigerian maritime research organisation, has warned that global freight rates could surge by as much as 40 percent. Even more alarming, SEREC has cautioned that marine war-risk insurance could spike by as much as 400 percent in high-risk corridors.
Hapag-Lloyd has already introduced a War Risk Surcharge (WRS) of $1,500 per 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) on all cargo to and from the Arabian Gulf. CMA CGM has slapped an Emergency Conflict Surcharge of up to $3,000 on 40-foot containers. Hapag-Lloyd has gone further, suspending all bookings from African countries — including Nigeria — to the Upper Gulf region, covering the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and parts of Saudi Arabia. MSC has suspended all worldwide cargo bookings headed to the Middle East entirely.
For Nigerian exporters — who rely on Gulf ports, particularly Jebel Ali in Dubai, as transshipment hubs to reach Asian markets — the suspension of these bookings is a direct blockage of trade routes, not simply a cost increase. The Upper Gulf region is a vital destination for Nigerian crude oil, LNG, sesame seeds, gold, and various agricultural commodities. With those routes shut, shippers face the choice of either finding alternative transshipment points or absorbing indefinite delays.
“They always take advantage. They charge more. If they charge more, nobody, no shipper has any other alternative but to pay. Naturally, that affects our competitiveness.”
— Nigerian shipper, quoted by BusinessDay
THE SUEZ ROUTE AND THE CAPE DETOUR
The core logistical problem for Nigerian shippers is the collapse of the Suez Canal-Red Sea route. This corridor — the fastest sea link between West Africa and Asia — typically takes 30 to 35 days. The alternative, rerouting around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adds roughly two additional weeks to transit time, while burning millions of dollars in additional fuel per vessel.
Nigeria was doubly exposed because the conflict arrived just as the industry had appeared to stabilise. Just days before the US-Israeli strikes, CMA CGM had announced plans to resume full Suez Canal operations in the second quarter of 2026 — itself a recovery from the 2023–2025 Red Sea disruptions caused by Iran-backed Houthi attacks on shipping. The outbreak of this new, larger conflict immediately reversed that plan. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said the war has ‘shattered hopes of a large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026,’ with any plans for a phased return now shelved.
The absorption effect of Cape rerouting further compounds the problem. Xeneta estimates that the longer voyage distances required by the Cape of Good Hope route will absorb approximately 2.5 million TEU of global shipping capacity — as each vessel completes fewer annual round trips over longer distances. This structural capacity squeeze means elevated freight rates are likely to persist well beyond any eventual ceasefire or diplomatic de-escalation.
THE LNG DISRUPTION AND NIGERIA’S EXPORT OPPORTUNITY
Qatar, the world’s largest LNG producer, has been forced to pause LNG production at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial facilities following Iranian missile strikes. Qatar’s civil aviation authority has suspended all air navigation, Qatar Airways has grounded flights, and public Ramadan gatherings have been suspended. Rachel Ziemba, a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera: ‘There has definitely been an escalation overnight, with pressure on energy infrastructure in the Gulf and Qatar pre-emptively pausing LNG production.’
For Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG), operating from Bonny Island in Rivers State, this disruption to the world’s largest LNG supplier creates a potential market opening. With Qatari volumes offline and Atlantic basin buyers — particularly European utilities — scrambling for alternative cargoes, Nigerian LNG may command premium spot prices in the coming weeks. The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s LNG supply ordinarily flows, is now effectively closed to commercial shipping. That volume has to come from somewhere else.
Nigeria’s position as an oil producer also brings a mixed set of consequences. Brent crude has risen by 10 to 13 percent since the outbreak of the conflict, with analysts at Barclays and Goldman Sachs forecasting potential rises toward $100 per barrel or beyond if the disruption persists. Higher crude prices would increase revenue for NNPCL and independent oil producers — but the same price spike that boosts upstream revenues will also feed through into higher costs for refined petroleum products, which Nigeria continues to import.
THE INTERNATIONAL LAW DIMENSION
Al Jazeera’s coverage has consistently framed this conflict not merely as a geopolitical crisis, but as a question of international legality. The US and Israel struck Iran while nuclear negotiations were at an advanced stage — a context that leading international legal scholars have described as a fundamental challenge to the UN Charter’s prohibition on the use of force except in self-defence or with Security Council authorisation. Lebanon’s Hezbollah described the attacks as a ‘blatant violation of international law and the United Nations Charter.’ The International Committee of the Red Cross president, Mirjana Spoljaric, warned of ‘a dangerous chain reaction of military escalation with potentially devastating consequences for civilians.’
These are not merely abstract ethical concerns for Nigeria’s maritime community. The legal status of the conflict shapes the political durability of any ceasefire, the willingness of Gulf states to host diplomatic talks, and the credibility of any eventual reconstruction of Gulf shipping corridors. A war initiated in breach of international law — and one in which a mediating state, Oman, publicly expressed dismay — is a war whose political resolution faces higher diplomatic obstacles.
WHAT PORT OPERATORS AND SHIPPERS MUST DO NOW
The Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) and the Nigeria Shippers Council (NSC) face immediate operational questions. With Jebel Ali Port in the UAE — one of the world’s busiest transshipment hubs — having experienced a temporary suspension and remaining under uncertainty, cargo originally destined for onward movement through the Gulf will need to find alternative routing. Port operators at Apapa and Tin Can Island should assess their capacity to handle increased vessel calls should Cape of Good Hope rerouting bring more Atlantic traffic past Nigeria’s coastline.
For shippers, logistics firm Flexport has advised businesses to ‘prepare for longer lead times, tight capacity, elevated rates, and continued volatility across both ocean and air networks.’ DSV, the freight forwarder, has recommended that customers share updated shipment forecasts immediately, confirm bookings early to secure space, factor congestion into safety stock assessments, and consider alternatives where feasible. Businesses relying on air freight through Gulf hubs will find that option equally disrupted: FedEx has suspended flights to and from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
| KEY IMPACTS ON NIGERIAN SHIPPING — AT A GLANCE | |
| Freight rates | Container rates to/from Nigeria rising; 20ft containers at $4,600, 40ft at $5,600 from March 10. Industry warns of up to 40% surge. |
| War-risk insurance | SEREC warns premiums in high-risk corridors could spike by 400%. Hapag-Lloyd WRS: $1,500 per TEU. |
| Booking suspensions | Hapag-Lloyd has suspended all Nigeria-to-Gulf bookings. MSC has halted global bookings to the Middle East. |
| Transit time | Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds ~2 weeks to Asia-Nigeria journeys vs the Suez Canal route. |
| Capacity squeeze | Xeneta: Cape rerouting absorbs ~2.5 million TEU of global shipping capacity. |
| LNG exports | Qatari LNG production halted; NLNG may see improved spot pricing opportunities. |
| Oil revenue | Brent crude up 10–13%; potential upside for NNPCL if prices sustain toward $100/bbl. |
| Air freight | Gulf hubs disrupted; FedEx has suspended flights across the Middle East region. |
Blue Economy
Water Transport Operators Push For Recognition At The Table As FTAN Demands Tourism Policy Reforms
Water Transport Operators Push For Recognition At The Table As FTAN Demands Tourism Policy Reforms
By Okeoghene Onoriobe | Waterways News
Nigeria’s tourism sector needs urgent policy reform, stronger collaboration and fresh investment to compete globally and water transport operators who are members of the Federation of Tourism Associations of Nigeria (FTAN) want that conversation to include the boats, ferries and waterway routes that move millions of Nigerians and could move even more tourists.
That was the underlying idea raised by Comrade Babatope Fajemirokun National President of Waterfront Boat Owners and Transporters Association of Nigeria (WABOTAN) represented by Chief Raymond Gold, National PRO of WABOTAN, at the ninth Nigeria Tourism Investors Forum and Exhibition (NTIFE), held over two days in Abuja under the theme “Tourism Transformation Through Collaboration, Policy Alignment and Investment.” The events took place between Thursday 30 to Friday 31 of July 2026. Waterfront Boat Owners and Transporters Association of Nigeria (WABOTAN), is a corporate member of FTAN
The forum drew policymakers, investors, tourism operators and development partners.
FTAN President Dr Aliyu Badaki used his welcome remarks to press the Federal Government to overhaul tourism-related laws and regulatory frameworks that he said breed duplication, institutional conflict and legal uncertainty for operators. He said the federation’s newly developed Tourism Transformation Mandate (TTM) is meant to unify every segment of the tourism value chain.
Babatope Fajemirokun, through Chief Gold emphasizes the fact that this value chain for Nigeria’s coastal cities, riverine communities and inland waterway corridors, runs directly through water transport.
Badaki argued that fragmented efforts and weak coordination have held back the sector for years, and called for regulation that enables rather than inhibits growth.
Minister of Art, Culture, Tourism and Creative Economy, Hannatu Musawa, who declared the forum open, described tourism as a strategic pillar for economic diversification. She said government cannot finance tourism transformation alone and that private capital must lead, with government’s role limited to creating an enabling environment for investors.
In his keynote address, Sen. Ibrahim Ida called for stronger collaboration among government, the private sector and host communities, saying tourism can generate jobs, foreign exchange and diversification if properly harnessed.
Panel sessions, moderated by Justina Ovat of Calabar Hospitality House Limited, featured Nigeria Tourism Development Authority (NTDA) Director-General Dr Ola Awakan, who called for policy consistency and investor-friendly incentives, and Dr Philip Maga of the National Institute for Hospitality and Tourism (NIHOTOUR), who flagged the need for stronger workforce training to close skills gaps across the hospitality industry.
Hospitality entrepreneur Lanre Balogun urged investors to prioritise disciplined, long-term planning.
Nigeria Watch
For Nigeria’s water transport sector, NTIFE’s reform push is not a side conversation. Rather, it is a direct stakeholder issue. FTAN’s corporate membership includes Waterfront Boat Owners and Transporters Association of Nigeria (WABOTAN) and the Association of Tourist Boat Operators and Water Transporters of Nigeria (ATBOWATON), both drawn from the ranks of operators who run the boats, ferries and water taxis that already serve Lagos’s creeks, the Niger Delta’s riverine towns and coastal leisure routes. Their presence inside FTAN means the federation’s demand for regulatory clarity and coordinated policy carries an inland-waterways and blue-economy dimension that goes beyond hotels and heritage sites.
That matters because water tourism sits at an awkward regulatory junction in Nigeria. A tourist boat operator answers not only to tourism authorities but potentially to NIWA, LASWA (in Lagos) and NIMASA on safety standards, and state government tourism boards, precisely the kind of overlapping jurisdiction Badaki described as breeding “duplication, institutional conflicts… and operational uncertainty.”
The 2026 Supreme Court ruling affirming NIWA’s regulatory authority over inland waterways nationwide, following the NIWA-LASWA jurisdictional dispute, is a live example of the kind of institutional friction FTAN’s Tourism Transformation Mandate is meant to resolve, at least on the tourism side.
Musawa’s call for private capital to lead tourism investment also lands squarely on water transport operators’ desks. Vessel acquisition, safety retrofitting, jetty infrastructure and life-jacket compliance all require capital that small-scale operators, including WABOTAN’s member-cooperative structure, have struggled to access, a gap that echoes the long-running CVFF disbursement failure in the cabotage shipping sector and underscores why financing bottlenecks are not unique to cargo and passenger shipping alone.
If FTAN’s push for policy alignment succeeds in drawing water transport formally into Nigeria’s tourism investment architecture, operators like WABOTAN and ATBOWATON could gain a stronger claim to inclusion in infrastructure programmes such as the Omi-Eko electric ferry project and LASWA’s ferry safety development initiatives, turning routine commuter water transport into a recognised leisure and tourism asset, not just a transportation afterthought.
For a sector accustomed to being regulated but rarely consulted, this call by Babatope Fajemirokun is a modest but meaningful call.
Blue Economy
NIMASA Deepens Seafarer Welfare Push, Signs Off Renewed Mission to Seafarers Collaboration
NIMASA Deepens Seafarer Welfare Push, Signs Off Renewed Mission to Seafarers Collaboration
By Ighoyota Onaibre | Waterways News
The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) has restated its commitment to improving the welfare of Nigerian seafarers, pledging deeper collaboration with the Mission to Seafarers (MtS) as part of ongoing reforms in the sector.
The commitment came as the Director-General, Dr Dayo Mobereola, received a delegation from the Mission to Seafarers at the agency’s Lagos headquarters, led by the Chairman of MtS Lagos, Chief Adebayo Sarumi, alongside the Regional Director for Africa, Reverend Cedric Rautenbach.
Speaking on behalf of the DG, NIMASA’s Executive Director for Operations, Engr. Fatai Taiye Adeyemi, said the agency would continue tightening certification processes, expanding capacity development programmes, and strengthening welfare policies for seafarers both at sea and in port, in partnership with stakeholders such as the Mission to Seafarers.
Chief Sarumi commended NIMASA’s ongoing reforms and expressed confidence that closer collaboration would translate into tangible welfare gains for Nigerian maritime professionals. Reverend Rautenbach, for his part, clarified that while the Mission to Seafarers and Nigeria’s Port Welfare Committees pursue a shared objective which is the the wellbeing of seafarers. The two bodies operate on distinct, complementary mandates, making coordination between them essential to strengthening on-ground support at Nigerian ports.
The meeting covered decent working conditions, welfare service gaps, and areas of mutual collaboration. NIMASA said the engagement aligns with its obligations under the Maritime Labour Convention (MLC) 2006, and forms part of a broader push toward stronger regulatory oversight and stakeholder engagement on seafarer rights.
Nigeria Watch
Beyond the courtesy-visit optics, this meeting lands on a fault line that has dogged Nigerian seafarer welfare for years: fragmented institutional responsibility. NIMASA regulates and certifies; Port Welfare Committees are meant to deliver frontline services at berths; the Mission to Seafarers, a faith-based international NGO, fills gaps neither statutory body always reaches. These gaps are chaplaincy, shore leave support, emergency assistance, and advocacy for stranded or abandoned crew.
Rautenbach’s point about “distinct but complementary mandates” is worth pressing on, because in practice that distinction has often meant duplication in some areas and total absence in others.
Nigerian seafarers have long reported patchy access to welfare facilities at ports like Apapa, Tin Can Island, and Onne. Such reports include inconsistent internet access, poor rest facilities, and slow response to cases of wage default or abandonment by errant shipowners, issues MWUN has repeatedly raised in past CBA compliance disputes.
NIMASA’s MLC 2006 framing is the right one, but enforcement, not policy language, remains the industry’s persistent complaint. If this renewed MtS partnership is to mean more than another photo-op at headquarters, it should translate into a documented, port-by-port welfare service map: which ports have functioning seafarer centres, which Port Welfare Committees are actually active, and where the Mission to Seafarers’ Flying Angel network is present versus where seafarers are effectively on their own.
Nigerian crews calling at their own national ports deserve better than welfare support that depends on which NGO happens to be in town.
NIMASA Bets on Youths to Power Nigeria’s Blue Giant Ambitions
By Okeoghene Onoriobe | Waterways News
The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) has restated that the country’s push to become Africa’s “Blue Giant” will rise or fall on how well it equips young Nigerians for the blue economy, with the agency’s Director-General, Dr Dayo Mobereola, describing youth capacity-building as the engine room of the National Marine and Blue Economy Policy.
Mobereola made the point at the 10th Taiwo Afolabi Annual Maritime (TAAM) Lecture at the University of Lagos, where he was represented by NIMASA’s Director of Reforms Coordination and Blue Economy, Mrs Nneka Obianyor. He linked the agency’s youth agenda directly to President Bola Tinubu’s economic diversification drive, noting that the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, has directed NIMASA to prioritise skills development and job creation for young Nigerians in the sector.
Director-General of NIMASA, Dr. Dayo Mobereola
To back that up, Mobereola pointed to a cluster of NIMASA programmes already running: the long-standing Nigerian Seafarers Development Programme (NSDP), a newly launched Blue Economy Accelerator Initiative, skills acquisition centres spread across the six geopolitical zones, and the rollout of Institutes of Maritime Studies in select Nigerian universities. He framed these as deliberate interventions meant to build capacity, generate employment, and spur innovation among the country’s youth population.
Separately, NIMASA used the UNILAG engagement to go beyond ceremony, running an interactive session with doctoral and master’s students on shipping development, maritime logistics, cabotage implementation, and maritime labour regulation. The session was led by the agency’s Director of Cabotage Services, Ms Gloria Anyasodo, and was pitched as part of a broader effort to strengthen ties between academia and industry in tackling the maritime sector’s practical challenges.
Nigeria Watch
The optics are good; the test, as always, will be delivery. NIMASA has no shortage of youth-facing initiatives on paper. The NSDP has existed for years, skills centres have been announced before, and Institutes of Maritime Studies have been floated in past budget cycles. What’s new here is the Blue Economy Accelerator Initiative, and it arrives with the same vagueness that has dogged similar rollouts: no disclosed funding envelope, no timeline for the six geopolitical zone centres to be fully operational, and no public framework for how graduates of these programmes are absorbed into shipping, logistics, or cabotage jobs afterward.
That absorption question matters more than any lecture-hall soundbite. Nigeria’s maritime training pipeline, from MAN Oron to the seafarer certification backlog that this publication has tracked, already produces more qualified hands than the domestic fleet and port ecosystem can currently employ. This is a mismatch tied directly to the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund’s decades-long disbursement failure and the slow pace of indigenous vessel acquisition. Training more youths without fixing that bottleneck simply shifts the frustration downstream, from unemployment to underemployment.
There’s also an accountability gap in how these announcements are made. They are usually made through a lecture delegation rather than a costed policy document. If NIMASA and the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy are serious about youths driving the Blue Giant ambition, the next disclosure should include enrolment numbers, the accelerator’s funding source, and most critically, the placement data showing how many NSDP and skills-centre graduates have actually found sea-time or shore-based maritime employment. Until then, this remains a well-intentioned promise stacked on top of several older, still-unfulfilled promises.
Oil and Gas5 months agoTantita’s Pipeline Deal: $144m Contract, Rising Output, and the Questions that Deserve Answers
- MARITIME TRADE & SHIPPING5 months ago
World’s Largest Container Ship Sets New Maritime Record with 22,233 TEUs on Single Voyage
- Blue Economy6 months ago
Nigeria’s Coast Guard Bill: A Solution in Search of a Problem?
