Blue Economy
CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE: How the US-Israel War on Iran Is Shaking Nigeria’s Shipping Sector
CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE: How the US-Israel War on Iran Is Shaking Nigeria’s Shipping Sector
Joint US-Israeli strikes launched on February 28 under Operation Epic Fury — condemned internationally as attacks launched while nuclear negotiations were ongoing — have shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, rerouted the world’s shipping fleets around Africa, and set freight costs on course for a sharp climb. Nigerian importers, exporters, and port operators are now assessing what comes next.
By the Maritime Affairs Desk, waterwaysnews.ng
Lagos | March 3, 2026
The world did not see it coming — or at least, the world had reason to believe it would not. The United States and Israel launched coordinated air strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting military facilities, nuclear sites and national leadership in what Washington designated Operation Epic Fury. The strikes came, Al Jazeera reported, even as US-Iran nuclear negotiations were ongoing through Omani mediators in Geneva — a fact that drew immediate, sharp condemnation from governments across the globe and left the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities. For Nigeria’s maritime sector, the diplomatic and legal controversies of how the war began matter less, right now, than its hard economic consequences — consequences that are already materialising at the docks of Apapa, Tin Can Island, and Onne.
The war is now in its third day. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, transmitting warnings via VHF radio to vessels in the waterway that no ship is permitted to pass. Though no formal blockade has been declared, the impact has been equivalent to one. Ship-tracking data shows tanker traffic has dropped by approximately 70 percent, with over 150 ships anchored outside the strait. At least five tankers have been damaged. Two crew members have been killed. The world’s largest shipping companies — Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM — have all suspended operations through the waterway and pivoted their fleets toward a longer, costlier alternative: the Cape of Good Hope, around the southern tip of Africa.
That rerouting is not merely a logistical inconvenience. It is a structural shock to global trade — and Nigeria sits squarely in its path.
THE STRIKES THAT STARTED A WAR
Al Jazeera’s reporting on the origins of the conflict is unambiguous in its framing: the US and Israel launched their offensive while nuclear talks were still under way. Omani mediators had announced progress in Geneva negotiations, where Iran had reportedly agreed to zero uranium stockpiling and full verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Washington’s decision to strike regardless drew Oman’s public dismay, with its foreign minister urging Washington ‘not to get sucked in’ further and calling on the UN Security Council to convene an emergency meeting. The EU urged ‘maximum restraint,’ and the UN’s Guterres stated plainly that the US and Israeli use of force — and Iran’s subsequent retaliatory strikes — ‘undermine international peace and security.’
Iran’s retaliation has been extensive. Since February 28, Tehran has launched waves of missiles and drones at Israeli territory and at US military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq. The IRGC has attacked 27 bases where US troops are deployed. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the head of the IRGC were confirmed killed in the opening strikes. Four US service members have been killed in action. Explosions have been reported in Dubai, Cyprus, and across the wider Gulf region. Qatar — host to the Al Udeid Air Base and one of the world’s largest LNG exporters — has suspended all air navigation and grounded all Qatar Airways flights indefinitely.
FREIGHT COSTS: THE IMMEDIATE BLOW TO NIGERIA
Nigerian shippers are already bracing for significant pain. Aminu Umar, president of the Nigerian Chamber of Shipping, was among the first in the sector to sound the alarm in the hours after the strikes began.
“We are going to see longer days of cargo arrivals, and a very high freight rate coming up from tomorrow. If oil price jumps, which is most likely, there is no way freight will not go up, because bunker prices will also rise.”
— Aminu Umar, President, Nigerian Chamber of Shipping (BusinessDay)
His warning is being confirmed in real time. According to BusinessDay, container rates for cargo into Nigeria are set at $4,600 for a 20-foot dry van container and $5,600 for a 40-foot container from March 10 through at least March 21. These are not the final figures: the Sea Empowerment and Research Center (SEREC), a Nigerian maritime research organisation, has warned that global freight rates could surge by as much as 40 percent. Even more alarming, SEREC has cautioned that marine war-risk insurance could spike by as much as 400 percent in high-risk corridors.
Hapag-Lloyd has already introduced a War Risk Surcharge (WRS) of $1,500 per 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) on all cargo to and from the Arabian Gulf. CMA CGM has slapped an Emergency Conflict Surcharge of up to $3,000 on 40-foot containers. Hapag-Lloyd has gone further, suspending all bookings from African countries — including Nigeria — to the Upper Gulf region, covering the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and parts of Saudi Arabia. MSC has suspended all worldwide cargo bookings headed to the Middle East entirely.
For Nigerian exporters — who rely on Gulf ports, particularly Jebel Ali in Dubai, as transshipment hubs to reach Asian markets — the suspension of these bookings is a direct blockage of trade routes, not simply a cost increase. The Upper Gulf region is a vital destination for Nigerian crude oil, LNG, sesame seeds, gold, and various agricultural commodities. With those routes shut, shippers face the choice of either finding alternative transshipment points or absorbing indefinite delays.
“They always take advantage. They charge more. If they charge more, nobody, no shipper has any other alternative but to pay. Naturally, that affects our competitiveness.”
— Nigerian shipper, quoted by BusinessDay
THE SUEZ ROUTE AND THE CAPE DETOUR
The core logistical problem for Nigerian shippers is the collapse of the Suez Canal-Red Sea route. This corridor — the fastest sea link between West Africa and Asia — typically takes 30 to 35 days. The alternative, rerouting around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adds roughly two additional weeks to transit time, while burning millions of dollars in additional fuel per vessel.
Nigeria was doubly exposed because the conflict arrived just as the industry had appeared to stabilise. Just days before the US-Israeli strikes, CMA CGM had announced plans to resume full Suez Canal operations in the second quarter of 2026 — itself a recovery from the 2023–2025 Red Sea disruptions caused by Iran-backed Houthi attacks on shipping. The outbreak of this new, larger conflict immediately reversed that plan. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said the war has ‘shattered hopes of a large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026,’ with any plans for a phased return now shelved.
The absorption effect of Cape rerouting further compounds the problem. Xeneta estimates that the longer voyage distances required by the Cape of Good Hope route will absorb approximately 2.5 million TEU of global shipping capacity — as each vessel completes fewer annual round trips over longer distances. This structural capacity squeeze means elevated freight rates are likely to persist well beyond any eventual ceasefire or diplomatic de-escalation.
THE LNG DISRUPTION AND NIGERIA’S EXPORT OPPORTUNITY
Qatar, the world’s largest LNG producer, has been forced to pause LNG production at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial facilities following Iranian missile strikes. Qatar’s civil aviation authority has suspended all air navigation, Qatar Airways has grounded flights, and public Ramadan gatherings have been suspended. Rachel Ziemba, a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera: ‘There has definitely been an escalation overnight, with pressure on energy infrastructure in the Gulf and Qatar pre-emptively pausing LNG production.’
For Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG), operating from Bonny Island in Rivers State, this disruption to the world’s largest LNG supplier creates a potential market opening. With Qatari volumes offline and Atlantic basin buyers — particularly European utilities — scrambling for alternative cargoes, Nigerian LNG may command premium spot prices in the coming weeks. The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s LNG supply ordinarily flows, is now effectively closed to commercial shipping. That volume has to come from somewhere else.
Nigeria’s position as an oil producer also brings a mixed set of consequences. Brent crude has risen by 10 to 13 percent since the outbreak of the conflict, with analysts at Barclays and Goldman Sachs forecasting potential rises toward $100 per barrel or beyond if the disruption persists. Higher crude prices would increase revenue for NNPCL and independent oil producers — but the same price spike that boosts upstream revenues will also feed through into higher costs for refined petroleum products, which Nigeria continues to import.
THE INTERNATIONAL LAW DIMENSION
Al Jazeera’s coverage has consistently framed this conflict not merely as a geopolitical crisis, but as a question of international legality. The US and Israel struck Iran while nuclear negotiations were at an advanced stage — a context that leading international legal scholars have described as a fundamental challenge to the UN Charter’s prohibition on the use of force except in self-defence or with Security Council authorisation. Lebanon’s Hezbollah described the attacks as a ‘blatant violation of international law and the United Nations Charter.’ The International Committee of the Red Cross president, Mirjana Spoljaric, warned of ‘a dangerous chain reaction of military escalation with potentially devastating consequences for civilians.’
These are not merely abstract ethical concerns for Nigeria’s maritime community. The legal status of the conflict shapes the political durability of any ceasefire, the willingness of Gulf states to host diplomatic talks, and the credibility of any eventual reconstruction of Gulf shipping corridors. A war initiated in breach of international law — and one in which a mediating state, Oman, publicly expressed dismay — is a war whose political resolution faces higher diplomatic obstacles.
WHAT PORT OPERATORS AND SHIPPERS MUST DO NOW
The Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) and the Nigeria Shippers Council (NSC) face immediate operational questions. With Jebel Ali Port in the UAE — one of the world’s busiest transshipment hubs — having experienced a temporary suspension and remaining under uncertainty, cargo originally destined for onward movement through the Gulf will need to find alternative routing. Port operators at Apapa and Tin Can Island should assess their capacity to handle increased vessel calls should Cape of Good Hope rerouting bring more Atlantic traffic past Nigeria’s coastline.
For shippers, logistics firm Flexport has advised businesses to ‘prepare for longer lead times, tight capacity, elevated rates, and continued volatility across both ocean and air networks.’ DSV, the freight forwarder, has recommended that customers share updated shipment forecasts immediately, confirm bookings early to secure space, factor congestion into safety stock assessments, and consider alternatives where feasible. Businesses relying on air freight through Gulf hubs will find that option equally disrupted: FedEx has suspended flights to and from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
| KEY IMPACTS ON NIGERIAN SHIPPING — AT A GLANCE | |
| Freight rates | Container rates to/from Nigeria rising; 20ft containers at $4,600, 40ft at $5,600 from March 10. Industry warns of up to 40% surge. |
| War-risk insurance | SEREC warns premiums in high-risk corridors could spike by 400%. Hapag-Lloyd WRS: $1,500 per TEU. |
| Booking suspensions | Hapag-Lloyd has suspended all Nigeria-to-Gulf bookings. MSC has halted global bookings to the Middle East. |
| Transit time | Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds ~2 weeks to Asia-Nigeria journeys vs the Suez Canal route. |
| Capacity squeeze | Xeneta: Cape rerouting absorbs ~2.5 million TEU of global shipping capacity. |
| LNG exports | Qatari LNG production halted; NLNG may see improved spot pricing opportunities. |
| Oil revenue | Brent crude up 10–13%; potential upside for NNPCL if prices sustain toward $100/bbl. |
| Air freight | Gulf hubs disrupted; FedEx has suspended flights across the Middle East region. |
$200m Fish Lifeline: FG Taps World Bank Funds to Push States Towards Fish Sufficiency
Oyetola Sets Sights on Net Exporter Status as FG Secures $200m World Bank Backing for State-Led Aquaculture
By Okeoghene Onoriobe | Waterways News
The Federal Government says it has secured a $200 million commitment from the World Bank Group to drive fisheries and aquaculture production nationwide, as it moves to cut fish imports and close a supply gap of more than 2.2 million tonnes.
The money will be lent to state governments on concessional terms. It is meant to help them expand fish production, attract investment and build viable aquaculture projects.
The Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Dr Adegboyega Oyetola, announced this at an Executive Training on the Aquaculture Investment Guide, organised by his ministry with the World Bank Group in Abuja. He was represented by the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Marine and Blue Economy, Professor Busayo Fakinlede.
Oyetola said fish is central to food security, household nutrition and rural livelihoods, and that Nigeria cannot be food secure while importing most of its fish. He said the goal is to “produce more, import less” and eventually become a net exporter, which he said requires every state to play its part.
The numbers
Nigeria needs about 3.6 million tonnes of fish a year but produces roughly 1.4 million tonnes. Imports cover the gap and cost nearly $1 billion annually in foreign exchange.
State-driven framework
Under the ministry’s framework, each state is expected to:
identify priority aquaculture value chains
assess investment readiness
develop bankable project pipelines
commit to measurable contributions to national fish output
The training brought together commissioners from Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta and Cross River States, plus permanent secretaries and directors of fisheries and aquaculture from across the federation. It covered business models, risk management, environmental and social safeguards, and public-private partnerships.
A Federal-State interface is also planned to coordinate a national fish security strategy.
Oyetola commended the World Bank for its support on analytical studies, cluster-based development, capacity building and the Aquaculture Investment Guide. He will oversee a post-training stakeholders’ roundtable with states and other stakeholders to sustain momentum.
Ministry’s scorecard
Fakinlede credited the minister’s leadership for:
the August 2026 inauguration of the Technical Committee on Accelerating Fish Production
digitisation of fish import licensing
a rise in national output from 1.1 million to 1.4 million tonnes
US shrimp-export certification after compliance with Turtle Excluder Device requirements
the Fish City and Fish Terminal investment portfolio to attract private capital
NIGERIA WATCH
Read the fine print. As of 9 November, I could not find a published World Bank project document for the $200 million, and the figure rests on the ministry’s statement. The repayment period, interest rate, per-state allocation and disbursement date have not been made public, and it is unclear whether this is new money or part of financing already agreed. Waterways News should press the ministry on these before treating the figure as settled.
Loans, not grants. States carry the debt and must show bankable projects. Strong states like Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta and Cross River, whose commissioners attended, sit on the water and are best placed to benefit. Inland and riverine communities lacking project-preparation capacity risk being left behind.
The missing small operators. The framework speaks of investors, PPPs and bankable pipelines. It says little about artisanal fishers, boat operators and fishing communities, including those represented by WABOTAN and ATBOWATON, who supply and move much of the country’s fish. Without cold chains, landing jetties, safe water transport and affordable engines, higher production will not reach markets.
Policy versus delivery. The target is ambitious, with output reportedly up from 1.1 million to 1.4 million tonnes. Yet Nigeria still meets under 40 per cent of its fish demand, and it has heard similar promises before, from the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund onward. The test is whether the roundtable produces dates, allocations and measurable state commitments.
Blue Economy
Oyetola Takes Nigeria’s Case on Gulf of Guinea Security and Seafarer Welfare to IMO Council in London
Oyetola Takes Nigeria’s Case on Gulf of Guinea Security and Seafarer Welfare to IMO Council in London
Minister says seafarers must not become casualties of geopolitical disputes as Nigeria presses for stronger technical support for developing maritime nations
By Ighoyota Onaibre | Waterways News
Nigeria’s Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Dr. Adegboyega Oyetola, has restated the country’s commitment to safe, secure and sustainable international shipping. He is leading a high-level delegation to the 138th session of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Council in London.
The five-day session opened on November 2 at the IMO headquarters and ends today, November 6, 2026. Nigeria’s participation is meant to strengthen its voice in global maritime governance and to advance the interests of developing maritime nations.
Nigeria sits on the 40-member Council under Category C. The session is considering the protection of vital shipping routes, the welfare and safety of seafarers, institutional governance and the sustainability of the global maritime industry.
Protecting vital shipping lanes
A central issue is the protection of strategic shipping routes against growing security threats and attacks on commercial vessels in high-risk zones. Under Agenda Item 11, “Protection of Vital Shipping Lanes,” Nigeria is expected to draw on its experience combating piracy and maritime crime in the Gulf of Guinea to push for stronger international cooperation and coordinated security responses.
“Nigeria recognises that the challenges confronting the global maritime industry require collective action, stronger international cooperation and effective regulatory frameworks,” Oyetola said. He added that Nigeria was at the Council to see its interests represented and to contribute to solutions that strengthen maritime security, protect seafarers and promote sustainable shipping.
He said the progress made in the Gulf of Guinea showed that maritime insecurity can be tackled “through political commitment, effective coordination and cooperation among regional and international partners.”
Seafarer welfare
Seafarer welfare is also high on the agenda. This follows IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez’s condemnation of the use of seafarers as pawns in geopolitical disputes. Nigeria is backing measures to prevent the arbitrary detention and abandonment of seafarers, and to ensure their fair treatment, safe repatriation and mental well-being.
“Seafarers are the lifeblood of international shipping,” Oyetola said. “Their safety, dignity and welfare must never be compromised by geopolitical tensions.”
Budget and capacity building
The Council is also reviewing financial allocations for the 2026–2027 biennium and strategic priorities for 2028–2029. Nigeria sees this as an opening to push for more technical cooperation and capacity-building support for developing maritime countries.
Oyetola said developing maritime nations “must have access to the technical expertise, institutional support and investment opportunities required to participate meaningfully in the evolving global shipping industry.”
The delegation
The minister is accompanied by:
The Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy, Mrs. Fatima Mahmood
The Director-General of NIMASA, Dr. Dayo Mobereola
The Director of Maritime Services, Mr. Oyinloye Meshack
Nigeria’s Alternate Permanent Representative at the IMO, Mr. William Bwala
Nigeria Watch
A heavy session. The Council has dealt with more than Nigeria’s agenda this week. Other delegations have also pressed seafarer protection and freedom of navigation, with Liberia and Indonesia among the countries that raised them. The session has also given attention to security in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea. On Wednesday, the Council recommended a second four-year term for Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez, running from 2028 to 2031. The IMO Assembly must still approve it in 2027. Nigeria’s message on the Gulf of Guinea has been delivered in a crowded room.
Hormuz is a Nigerian issue. This newsroom has followed the Strait of Hormuz crisis closely, from rising freight rates to war-risk insurance premiums at Nigerian ports. Oyetola’s call to shield seafarers from geopolitical tension is not abstract. Dominguez has said thousands of seafarers in the region live and work under heightened risk, and the IMO’s tally of seafarers killed in the region since February stood at 24 as of November 5.
Where the Gulf of Guinea story stands. Nigeria is presenting its Gulf of Guinea record as a model, and the Deep Blue Project is the backbone of that claim. NIMASA has just showcased upgraded assets at AFRIDEX 2026. Delegates in London will weigh the narrative against what stakeholders at home actually experience on the water.
The home test. Nigeria’s arguments at the IMO for seafarer dignity, fair treatment and capacity-building support will carry weight in proportion to how well they are matched at home.
Questions that Waterways News continues to raise:
Do Nigerian seafarers and inland waterway workers enjoy the safety and welfare standards the minister is championing abroad?
Will the technical cooperation Nigeria is seeking reach small-scale and informal waterway operators, such as those under WABOTAN and ATBOWATON, or stay at the policy level?
With Nigeria holding a Council seat, how will diplomatic wins in London be turned into delivery at home, from CVFF disbursement to NPERA implementation?
Waterways News will keep tracking the outcome of the 138th Council session and what it means for Nigerian maritime stakeholders.
Blue Economy
NIWA Deploys Enforcers to Niger Waterfronts as Boat Operators Cry Out Over Life Jacket Shortage
NIWA Deploys Enforcers to Niger Waterfronts as Boat Operators Cry Out Over Life Jacket Shortage
Operators say a 300-seater has only seven jackets, and ask for prices to drop from N20,000 to as low as N5,000
By Raymond Gold | Waterways News
The National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA) has sent enforcement personnel to waterfronts across Niger State to make life jacket use compulsory and ensure compliance with inland waterways safety rules.
NIWA’s Minna Area Manager, Akapo Adeboye, announced this at the 2026 Sensitisation and Enlightenment Campaign on Inland Waterways Regulations at Zumba Waterfront, Shiroro Local Government Area. The campaign theme was “Total Safety Measures and Compliance on the Nation’s Inland Waterways.”
Adeboye said NIWA has given 3,500 life jackets to boat operators at waterfronts across the state. He was troubled, however, that some operators neither wear the jackets nor provide them for passengers during trips.
He also condemned operators who charge passengers extra to use a life jacket, saying this discourages compliance. He said the safety of lives and property remains a priority of the Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy, and that operators and passengers alike must wear life jackets before boarding. Violators, he warned, will face the full weight of the law.
Some operators at the event said scarcity and cost make full compliance impossible.
Adamu Gunduma said his boat carries 300 passengers but he has seven life jackets, one of them for himself. The other six go to passengers on a first-come, first-served basis.
Adamu Tanko said his 150-passenger boat has three life jackets.
Saidu Sani said his 40-passenger boat has none, for himself or his passengers.
Abubakar Mamman-Kwanu appealed to government and other stakeholders for more jackets through donations and support programmes.
The operators said a life jacket costs about N20,000 on the market and asked authorities to bring the price down to between N5,000 and N6,000. They added that high prices and falling farm-produce prices could keep many farmers from buying one. Farmers, they said, make up a large share of water transport users in the area. They called for stronger government intervention, arguing that easier access to life jackets would improve compliance and prevent avoidable deaths.
The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) first reported the development on Monday.
Nigeria Watch
Enforcement is arriving before supply. Gunduma, Tanko and Sani together operate boats licensed for 490 passengers, yet they reported 10 life jackets between them. Telling such operators to refuse boarding without a jacket is, for now, an order they cannot obey. Cheap jackets must reach waterfronts before penalties are enforced, or enforcement will fall hardest on the poorest operators.
NIWA has also faced a misuse problem. Adeboye said in an earlier interview that people sell the jackets, use them as pillows or farm tools. He said that when his team revisited a waterfront after a 3,500-jacket flag-off, they could not find one in use. Both complaints can be true at once, and the way out is a mix of local ownership, fitting by boat capacity and visible checks by marshals.
The stakes are real and well documented. After a July 2025 mishap at Zumba, Adeboye said 26 passengers wearing life jackets were rescued alive, 15 bodies were recovered and three people were missing. He noted that the incident came eight days after a NIWA sensitization campaign at the same waterfront.
Marshals and penalties are already in place. Waterways marshals were inaugurated at Zumba to enforce transport regulations. Adeboye has also said NIWA gazetted penalty codes for operators and passengers who fail to comply. The open question is whether operators get realistic access to compliance before sanctions bite.
Questions for NIWA and the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy:
How many jackets are needed to cover the licensed capacity of boats at Niger waterfronts, against the 3,500 supplied?
Can bulk procurement or local assembly bring the N20,000 price down?
Will NIWA publish compliance figures and sanctions issued after the campaign?
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