Blue Economy
CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE: How the US-Israel War on Iran Is Shaking Nigeria’s Shipping Sector
CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE: How the US-Israel War on Iran Is Shaking Nigeria’s Shipping Sector
Joint US-Israeli strikes launched on February 28 under Operation Epic Fury — condemned internationally as attacks launched while nuclear negotiations were ongoing — have shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, rerouted the world’s shipping fleets around Africa, and set freight costs on course for a sharp climb. Nigerian importers, exporters, and port operators are now assessing what comes next.
By the Maritime Affairs Desk, waterwaysnews.ng
Lagos | March 3, 2026
The world did not see it coming — or at least, the world had reason to believe it would not. The United States and Israel launched coordinated air strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting military facilities, nuclear sites and national leadership in what Washington designated Operation Epic Fury. The strikes came, Al Jazeera reported, even as US-Iran nuclear negotiations were ongoing through Omani mediators in Geneva — a fact that drew immediate, sharp condemnation from governments across the globe and left the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities. For Nigeria’s maritime sector, the diplomatic and legal controversies of how the war began matter less, right now, than its hard economic consequences — consequences that are already materialising at the docks of Apapa, Tin Can Island, and Onne.
The war is now in its third day. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, transmitting warnings via VHF radio to vessels in the waterway that no ship is permitted to pass. Though no formal blockade has been declared, the impact has been equivalent to one. Ship-tracking data shows tanker traffic has dropped by approximately 70 percent, with over 150 ships anchored outside the strait. At least five tankers have been damaged. Two crew members have been killed. The world’s largest shipping companies — Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM — have all suspended operations through the waterway and pivoted their fleets toward a longer, costlier alternative: the Cape of Good Hope, around the southern tip of Africa.
That rerouting is not merely a logistical inconvenience. It is a structural shock to global trade — and Nigeria sits squarely in its path.
THE STRIKES THAT STARTED A WAR
Al Jazeera’s reporting on the origins of the conflict is unambiguous in its framing: the US and Israel launched their offensive while nuclear talks were still under way. Omani mediators had announced progress in Geneva negotiations, where Iran had reportedly agreed to zero uranium stockpiling and full verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Washington’s decision to strike regardless drew Oman’s public dismay, with its foreign minister urging Washington ‘not to get sucked in’ further and calling on the UN Security Council to convene an emergency meeting. The EU urged ‘maximum restraint,’ and the UN’s Guterres stated plainly that the US and Israeli use of force — and Iran’s subsequent retaliatory strikes — ‘undermine international peace and security.’
Iran’s retaliation has been extensive. Since February 28, Tehran has launched waves of missiles and drones at Israeli territory and at US military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq. The IRGC has attacked 27 bases where US troops are deployed. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the head of the IRGC were confirmed killed in the opening strikes. Four US service members have been killed in action. Explosions have been reported in Dubai, Cyprus, and across the wider Gulf region. Qatar — host to the Al Udeid Air Base and one of the world’s largest LNG exporters — has suspended all air navigation and grounded all Qatar Airways flights indefinitely.
FREIGHT COSTS: THE IMMEDIATE BLOW TO NIGERIA
Nigerian shippers are already bracing for significant pain. Aminu Umar, president of the Nigerian Chamber of Shipping, was among the first in the sector to sound the alarm in the hours after the strikes began.
“We are going to see longer days of cargo arrivals, and a very high freight rate coming up from tomorrow. If oil price jumps, which is most likely, there is no way freight will not go up, because bunker prices will also rise.”
— Aminu Umar, President, Nigerian Chamber of Shipping (BusinessDay)
His warning is being confirmed in real time. According to BusinessDay, container rates for cargo into Nigeria are set at $4,600 for a 20-foot dry van container and $5,600 for a 40-foot container from March 10 through at least March 21. These are not the final figures: the Sea Empowerment and Research Center (SEREC), a Nigerian maritime research organisation, has warned that global freight rates could surge by as much as 40 percent. Even more alarming, SEREC has cautioned that marine war-risk insurance could spike by as much as 400 percent in high-risk corridors.
Hapag-Lloyd has already introduced a War Risk Surcharge (WRS) of $1,500 per 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) on all cargo to and from the Arabian Gulf. CMA CGM has slapped an Emergency Conflict Surcharge of up to $3,000 on 40-foot containers. Hapag-Lloyd has gone further, suspending all bookings from African countries — including Nigeria — to the Upper Gulf region, covering the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and parts of Saudi Arabia. MSC has suspended all worldwide cargo bookings headed to the Middle East entirely.
For Nigerian exporters — who rely on Gulf ports, particularly Jebel Ali in Dubai, as transshipment hubs to reach Asian markets — the suspension of these bookings is a direct blockage of trade routes, not simply a cost increase. The Upper Gulf region is a vital destination for Nigerian crude oil, LNG, sesame seeds, gold, and various agricultural commodities. With those routes shut, shippers face the choice of either finding alternative transshipment points or absorbing indefinite delays.
“They always take advantage. They charge more. If they charge more, nobody, no shipper has any other alternative but to pay. Naturally, that affects our competitiveness.”
— Nigerian shipper, quoted by BusinessDay
THE SUEZ ROUTE AND THE CAPE DETOUR
The core logistical problem for Nigerian shippers is the collapse of the Suez Canal-Red Sea route. This corridor — the fastest sea link between West Africa and Asia — typically takes 30 to 35 days. The alternative, rerouting around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adds roughly two additional weeks to transit time, while burning millions of dollars in additional fuel per vessel.
Nigeria was doubly exposed because the conflict arrived just as the industry had appeared to stabilise. Just days before the US-Israeli strikes, CMA CGM had announced plans to resume full Suez Canal operations in the second quarter of 2026 — itself a recovery from the 2023–2025 Red Sea disruptions caused by Iran-backed Houthi attacks on shipping. The outbreak of this new, larger conflict immediately reversed that plan. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said the war has ‘shattered hopes of a large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026,’ with any plans for a phased return now shelved.
The absorption effect of Cape rerouting further compounds the problem. Xeneta estimates that the longer voyage distances required by the Cape of Good Hope route will absorb approximately 2.5 million TEU of global shipping capacity — as each vessel completes fewer annual round trips over longer distances. This structural capacity squeeze means elevated freight rates are likely to persist well beyond any eventual ceasefire or diplomatic de-escalation.
THE LNG DISRUPTION AND NIGERIA’S EXPORT OPPORTUNITY
Qatar, the world’s largest LNG producer, has been forced to pause LNG production at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial facilities following Iranian missile strikes. Qatar’s civil aviation authority has suspended all air navigation, Qatar Airways has grounded flights, and public Ramadan gatherings have been suspended. Rachel Ziemba, a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera: ‘There has definitely been an escalation overnight, with pressure on energy infrastructure in the Gulf and Qatar pre-emptively pausing LNG production.’
For Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG), operating from Bonny Island in Rivers State, this disruption to the world’s largest LNG supplier creates a potential market opening. With Qatari volumes offline and Atlantic basin buyers — particularly European utilities — scrambling for alternative cargoes, Nigerian LNG may command premium spot prices in the coming weeks. The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s LNG supply ordinarily flows, is now effectively closed to commercial shipping. That volume has to come from somewhere else.
Nigeria’s position as an oil producer also brings a mixed set of consequences. Brent crude has risen by 10 to 13 percent since the outbreak of the conflict, with analysts at Barclays and Goldman Sachs forecasting potential rises toward $100 per barrel or beyond if the disruption persists. Higher crude prices would increase revenue for NNPCL and independent oil producers — but the same price spike that boosts upstream revenues will also feed through into higher costs for refined petroleum products, which Nigeria continues to import.
THE INTERNATIONAL LAW DIMENSION
Al Jazeera’s coverage has consistently framed this conflict not merely as a geopolitical crisis, but as a question of international legality. The US and Israel struck Iran while nuclear negotiations were at an advanced stage — a context that leading international legal scholars have described as a fundamental challenge to the UN Charter’s prohibition on the use of force except in self-defence or with Security Council authorisation. Lebanon’s Hezbollah described the attacks as a ‘blatant violation of international law and the United Nations Charter.’ The International Committee of the Red Cross president, Mirjana Spoljaric, warned of ‘a dangerous chain reaction of military escalation with potentially devastating consequences for civilians.’
These are not merely abstract ethical concerns for Nigeria’s maritime community. The legal status of the conflict shapes the political durability of any ceasefire, the willingness of Gulf states to host diplomatic talks, and the credibility of any eventual reconstruction of Gulf shipping corridors. A war initiated in breach of international law — and one in which a mediating state, Oman, publicly expressed dismay — is a war whose political resolution faces higher diplomatic obstacles.
WHAT PORT OPERATORS AND SHIPPERS MUST DO NOW
The Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) and the Nigeria Shippers Council (NSC) face immediate operational questions. With Jebel Ali Port in the UAE — one of the world’s busiest transshipment hubs — having experienced a temporary suspension and remaining under uncertainty, cargo originally destined for onward movement through the Gulf will need to find alternative routing. Port operators at Apapa and Tin Can Island should assess their capacity to handle increased vessel calls should Cape of Good Hope rerouting bring more Atlantic traffic past Nigeria’s coastline.
For shippers, logistics firm Flexport has advised businesses to ‘prepare for longer lead times, tight capacity, elevated rates, and continued volatility across both ocean and air networks.’ DSV, the freight forwarder, has recommended that customers share updated shipment forecasts immediately, confirm bookings early to secure space, factor congestion into safety stock assessments, and consider alternatives where feasible. Businesses relying on air freight through Gulf hubs will find that option equally disrupted: FedEx has suspended flights to and from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
| KEY IMPACTS ON NIGERIAN SHIPPING — AT A GLANCE | |
| Freight rates | Container rates to/from Nigeria rising; 20ft containers at $4,600, 40ft at $5,600 from March 10. Industry warns of up to 40% surge. |
| War-risk insurance | SEREC warns premiums in high-risk corridors could spike by 400%. Hapag-Lloyd WRS: $1,500 per TEU. |
| Booking suspensions | Hapag-Lloyd has suspended all Nigeria-to-Gulf bookings. MSC has halted global bookings to the Middle East. |
| Transit time | Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds ~2 weeks to Asia-Nigeria journeys vs the Suez Canal route. |
| Capacity squeeze | Xeneta: Cape rerouting absorbs ~2.5 million TEU of global shipping capacity. |
| LNG exports | Qatari LNG production halted; NLNG may see improved spot pricing opportunities. |
| Oil revenue | Brent crude up 10–13%; potential upside for NNPCL if prices sustain toward $100/bbl. |
| Air freight | Gulf hubs disrupted; FedEx has suspended flights across the Middle East region. |
Oyetola Woos Turkish Investors for Fisheries Sector, Vows to Protect Artisanal Fishers
By Okeoghene Onoriobe | Waterways News
The Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Dr Adegboyega Oyetola, has thrown Nigeria’s fisheries sector open to Turkish investment, insisting that any fresh capital coming into the industry must strengthen and not sideline the millions of Nigerians who depend on artisanal fishing for a living.
Oyetola made the pledge while receiving a delegation from Turkish fisheries and aquaculture firm CRD Impex, led by the company’s General Manager for Fisheries, Cem Tarhan, at his Abuja office. He told the investors the Federal Government was ready to create an investment-friendly climate for credible local and foreign players willing to bring capital, technology and modern value-chain solutions to the sector, on condition that such investment remains inclusive.
“We welcome investors who can bring capital, technology, expertise and modern value-chain solutions to the sector. However, investment must be inclusive and sustainable. It must complement and empower our artisanal fish producers, not undermine their livelihoods,” the Minister said
He listed inadequate infrastructure, poor access to modern fishing technology, weak cold-chain systems, limited processing and storage capacity, and gaps in market access as the major constraints holding back the sector, framing each as an opening for targeted investment rather than a dead end.
The Turkish team, which included CRD Impex founder Hanefi Cardak and Tetra Underwater Services founder Ersun Buyukgoze, toured key fisheries and aquaculture points around the country to size up the terrain first-hand. Stops included the Kirikiri Lighter Terminal in Lagos, the Ozumba Mbadiwe Fish Market in Lekki, and the Esuk Nsidung Beach Market, a major waterfront seafood hub in Calabar, Cross River State.
The Ministry described the visit as part of a broader push to attract serious investment into Nigeria’s blue economy while keeping the welfare of artisanal fishers central to that growth.
Nigeria Watch
The Turkish courtesy call lands squarely in the pattern this desk has tracked all year: big-ticket investment pledges for Nigeria’s waterways, paired with familiar assurances that the small operator won’t be crowded out. The test, as always, is what happens after the photo-op.
Nigeria’s artisanal fishing communities occupy the same economic space as the informal boat operators represented by WABOTAN and ATBOWATON, river- and creek-dependent Nigerians whose livelihoods rise or fall on decisions made far from the waterfront. The infrastructure gaps Oyetola cited which include, weak cold-chain systems, poor storage and limited market access, all mirror the exact complaints this desk has documented from inland waterway operators for years but modernisation announced from Abuja rarely reache the jetties.
Turkish capital chasing Nigerian fisheries and aquaculture is a genuinely new thread, distinct from the Strait of Hormuz shipping story or the CVFF disbursement saga this desk has followed closely. But the underlying question is the same one that has defined Oyetola’s tenure at the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy: will “inclusive investment” translate into contracts, cooperative partnerships and cold-chain infrastructure that artisanal operators can actually use or will it, like so many blue-economy pledges before it, stall at the courtesy-visit stage?
Waterways News will be watching for the first concrete CRD Impex commitment — site, timeline, or local partnership — as the marker of whether this one is different.
NPERA, NPA Open Technical Talks on Handover of Inland Dry Port Functions
By Ighoyota Onaibre | Waterways News
The Nigerian Ports Economic Regulatory Agency (NPERA) and the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) have begun formal engagement on transferring inland dry port oversight to NPERA, marking the start of what both agencies describe as a critical phase in operationalising Nigeria’s new port regulatory framework.
At a management-level meeting between the two agencies, officials focused on the technical groundwork for the handover, chiefly how to draw clear lines of responsibility and avoid duplication among the government bodies with a stake in inland dry port administration.
NPERA’s Director-General/CEO, Dr Akutah Pius, framed the transition as flowing directly from the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Dr Adegboyega Oyetola, whom he credited with steering the process toward the sector’s broader development. Akutah was emphatic that NPERA could not carry out the transfer alone, and said the buy-in of every relevant stakeholder agency would be needed to see it through.
He indicated that the Ministry would stay central to coordinating the process even as specific mandates move to the agencies best placed to execute them. Akutah also pointed to the Minister’s earlier interventions during the NPERA Bill’s passage through the National Assembly, which he said had defused inter-agency friction and set the stage for the cooperation now underway.
Describing the purpose of the meeting, Akutah said it was meant to formally kick off the transfer of inland dry port responsibilities to NPERA in fulfilment of its statutory role as economic regulator of the ports sector. He singled out Section 51 of the NPERA Act as a provision that now needs to be put into practical effect to keep the transition orderly and ensure stakeholder roles are properly aligned.
To manage the process going forward, the NPERA boss proposed setting up a joint committee drawing in NPERA, NPA, the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), and the Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy. He argued that inland dry ports matter well beyond the coastline. They extend maritime sector benefits into Nigeria’s hinterland and reinforce the country’s trade and logistics chain.
Responding on behalf of NPA, Managing Director Dr Abubakar Dantsoho welcomed the move and pledged his agency’s full operational and technical backing throughout the transition. He said the process had started on the right footing, and that NPA would furnish updated data on the current state of inland dry ports to inform further discussions, expressing confidence that continued engagement would help the agencies meet their shared objectives.
NPA’s Executive Director, Engr. Lekan Badmus, also commended NPERA for setting the collaboration in motion, calling the meeting a solid first step toward a smooth integration. He noted the two agencies have now moved into the technical phase of the exercise, with close attention being paid to eliminating overlapping functions.
Closing the meeting, Akutah said the proposed joint committee would reconvene with the Minister to seek further guidance and agree on next steps to keep the transition on track.
Nigeria Watch
This meeting is the first visible test of whether the NPERA Act’s promise of a rationalised port regulatory architecture can survive contact with Nigeria’s crowded agency landscape. Section 51’s transfer of inland dry port functions to NPERA looks straightforward on paper; in practice, it touches NPA’s traditional port administration turf, NIWA’s inland waterways mandate, and the Ministry’s coordinating role all at once, precisely the kind of overlapping jurisdiction that has bedevilled reform efforts elsewhere in the sector, most visibly in the long-running NIWA-LASWA tussle that only the Supreme Court could settle.
The proposed joint committee of NPERA, NPA, NIWA, and the Ministry, is a sensible mechanism, but Waterways News readers who have followed the CVFF disbursement saga know that Nigerian maritime governance has no shortage of well-designed committees whose outputs never quite reach implementation. What will matter is whether Akutah’s “technical phase” produces a binding timeline, not another round of goodwill statements.
For inland dry port operators and the hinterland trade corridors that depend on them, the stakes are practical: unclear jurisdiction between NPA and NPERA has historically meant slower cargo evacuation, duplicated levies, and uncertainty for freight forwarders planning routes away from the congested Lagos ports. If this transition is handled well, it strengthens the case for dry ports as genuine pressure valves for Apapa and Tin Can. If it stalls in inter-agency turf negotiation, it becomes one more entry in the gap between policy pronouncement and delivery that this desk continues to track.
Worth watching: whether Minister Oyetola’s office sets an explicit deadline when the committee reconvenes, and whether NIWA, whose inland waterways mandate intersects with dry port hinterland connectivity, gets more than a seat at the table.
Two More Tankers Struck in Strait of Hormuz as Attack Count Hits Five in a Week
By Okeoghene Onoriobe | Waterways News
Two more tankers have been hit while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, leaving two seafarers with minor injuries and pushing the number of reported attacks or security incidents against commercial vessels in the waterway to at least five since 16 September.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre said an inbound tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile on Monday. Two crew members sustained minor injuries, but the vessel stayed under its own power and continued to its next port, with no environmental impact reported.
Hours later, UKMTO issued a second alert after an outbound LPG tanker reported being struck by debris from unknown projectiles. All crew were reported safe and the vessel also continued its voyage. Authorities are investigating both incidents, and UKMTO has not attributed either attack to a specific actor.
The two strikes build on a Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) advisory covering three earlier attacks between 16 and 18 September, one of which saw a tanker’s hull breached by a projectile, sparking a fire. JMIC continues to rate the threat level in the strait as “severe,” citing a high likelihood of deliberate hostile action and pointing to a pattern of harassment by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — drone overflights, surveillance of merchant vessels and VHF hailing, alongside the direct attacks.
Traffic through the chokepoint remains sharply depressed. Only 17 commodity vessels were visibly transiting over the weekend, down from 37 the week before and against a pre-war daily average of roughly 125. That figure excludes vessels sailing with their AIS transponders switched off, and JMIC notes a persistent gap between visible and actual traffic.
Nigeria Watch
For Nigerian maritime stakeholders, the Hormuz crisis is no longer a distant Gulf story. It is a cost line. Every fresh escalation feeds directly into the war-risk insurance premiums and freight rates that Nigerian importers, refiners and shipping agents ultimately absorb, since global tanker and container capacity pulled off the Hormuz route tightens supply elsewhere and pushes rates up across long-haul trades, including those serving West African ports.
The renewed attacks also sharpen the stakes around Nigeria’s push for a stronger voice at the IMO Council table and its broader blue-economy diplomacy under Minister Adegboyega Oyetola. A sustained Gulf disruption is exactly the kind of systemic shock that tests whether Nigeria’s seat translates into influence over how global shipping risk, insurance and rerouting decisions are made, rather than Nigeria simply absorbing the downstream cost.
Locally, the episode is a reminder of the layered nature of “maritime security” as a policy word: the Deep Blue Project and Gulf of Guinea security architecture address piracy and armed robbery close to home, but Nigeria’s ports and shippers remain exposed to security failures thousands of kilometres away in the Gulf.
Waterways News will continue tracking how the Hormuz situation feeds into freight cost pressure at Nigerian ports and NIMASA’s public messaging on the issue.
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