MARITIME TRADE & SHIPPING
Shipping Disruptions Open Doors for African Ports, But Risks Mount — AU/AfDB Report
Shipping Disruptions Open Doors for African Ports, But Risks Mount — AU/AfDB Report
By Okeoghene Onoriobe
African maritime hubs are recording a surge in vessel traffic as global shipping routes face fresh disruption, but a new joint report by the African Union and the African Development Bank warns that the continent must not mistake short-term gains for lasting economic stability.
The report, released amid escalating tensions in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran — which erupted in late February — finds that rerouted shipping is driving increased activity at several key African ports. Vessels avoiding the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea corridor are now rounding the Cape of Good Hope in greater numbers, directly benefiting bunkering and maritime services at Durban Port, Walvis Bay, and Port Louis in Mauritius.
In Nigeria, the windfall is two-pronged. Rising crude oil prices — now above $100 per barrel — are boosting government revenues, while the Dangote Refinery is positioned to capitalise on increased export demand. The report identifies Nigeria as among the African economies best placed to gain from the current disruption.
Further along the continent’s coastline, Mozambique is also emerging as a beneficiary, with renewed momentum in liquefied natural gas exports and growing traffic through the Port of Maputo offering a timely economic boost.
East Africa is seeing its own maritime dividend. Kenya is consolidating its position as a regional logistics hub through Lamu Port and the Nairobi corridor, while Ethiopia is leveraging its strategic air bridge role via Ethiopian Airlines to link Asia, Africa, and Europe.
However, the report’s authors are emphatic that these gains are fragile and unevenly distributed. For the majority of African nations that depend on imported refined fuel, the Strait of Hormuz disruption — a choke-point handling roughly one-fifth of global oil supply — is already pushing up the cost of transportation, food production, and basic goods. The inflationary pressure threatens to reverse recent economic progress and erode consumer purchasing power across the continent.
Fragile states face an even starker outlook. The report warns that Sudan, Somalia, and Libya could face deepening instability, particularly around ports, critical mineral corridors, and the contested Red Sea shipping lane — a route of considerable strategic and commercial significance to African maritime operators.
The humanitarian picture is equally concerning in the Horn of Africa, where elevated logistics costs risk worsening living conditions for some of the continent’s most vulnerable populations.
On the macroeconomic front, the report projects that a prolonged conflict — one lasting beyond six months — could shave at least 0.2 percentage points off Africa’s GDP growth in 2026. The continent had been on course to grow at 4.0 percent this year, following 3.9 percent growth in 2025.
Looking further ahead, the report calls on governments, development partners, and the private sector to strengthen energy security, expand intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area, and develop deeper capital markets and innovative financing instruments such as diaspora bonds and blended finance.
AfDB President Sidi Ould Tah, commenting on the findings, urged a fundamental rethink of how Africa responds to global shocks. “As global crises multiply,” he said, “Africa’s response must evolve from managing shocks to building resilience.”
For Nigeria’s maritime sector and the wider African shipping community, the message is clear: the tide may be turning in some ports’ favour, but the waters ahead remain uncertain.
Waterways News | Maritime & Shipping