Business
INVESTIGATIVE REPORT: Does Dangote Refinery Have Genuine Grounds to Raise Petrol Prices to N995/litre?
INVESTIGATIVE REPORT: Does Dangote Refinery Have Genuine Grounds to Raise Petrol Prices to N995/litre?
By Oghenewoke Onoriode | Waterways News Research Reporter| March 7, 2026
THE CENTRAL QUESTION
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s justification for a N221 price hike within four days rests on one foundational claim: that it sources crude at international market prices and is therefore exposed to global oil price shocks. Our investigation finds this claim to be substantially true — but also structurally problematic, and one that raises serious questions about Nigeria’s energy policy failures, not just the refinery’s pricing decisions.
FINDING 1: THE REFINERY IS NOT PURELY DOMESTIC IN ITS CRUDE SOURCING — FAR FROM IT
This is perhaps the most critical finding of this investigation, and one the refinery does not loudly advertise in its public statements.
Dangote Refinery currently receives only five crude oil cargoes per month from NNPC — less than half of the 13 it needs to sustain full domestic supply. The shortfall of eight cargoes is sourced from other suppliers outside the country.
The scale of this foreign dependence is staggering. In 2025, the refinery bought approximately one-third of its crude from the United States, the lion’s share being West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Midland — sourced from crude fields around Midland, Texas, roughly 6,500 miles away.
“By mid-to-late 2025, U.S. crude had come to dominate the refinery’s feedstock mix for an extended period spanning several months, consistently outpacing Nigerian grades as the primary source of crude supply to the facility.”
In other words, this is not a local refinery sourcing local crude in any meaningful or sufficient sense. A refinery importing the majority of its feedstock from Texas and the Middle East, and paying for it in U.S. dollars at international market rates, is — by every economic measure — as exposed to global crude price shocks as any importer of finished petroleum products.
FINDING 2: EVEN THE NIGERIAN CRUDE IT BUYS IS PRICED AT INTERNATIONAL RATES — PLUS A PREMIUM
This is where the story gets even more complex. One might assume that the five monthly NNPC cargoes Dangote does receive are priced at a discounted or locally negotiated naira rate. They are not.
The cargoes received from NNPC under the naira-for-crude arrangement are priced at international market rates plus a premium. Nigerian crude oil costs $3 to $6 more per barrel above the Brent benchmark price. After adding freight of $3.50 per barrel, crude lands in Dangote’s tanks at between $88 and $91 per barrel.
For the additional eight cargoes sourced internationally, the refinery procures foreign exchange at open market rates to pay for crude purchased from local and international traders. Nigeria’s upstream producers have also failed to supply crude to the refinery as required under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), forcing the company to source a substantial portion through international traders who charge an additional premium.
This means there is essentially no subsidized or preferential pricing for Dangote despite the refinery being on Nigerian soil. Every barrel it processes costs it close to or above the full international market rate.
FINDING 3: THE NNPC’S SYSTEMIC FAILURE IS A ROOT CAUSE THE PUBLIC IS NOT BEING TOLD CLEARLY ENOUGH
NNPC has an economic incentive to sell its crude oil on international markets rather than to Dangote, because revenue from crude sales to the refinery is denominated in naira — a currency that has weakened relative to the U.S. dollar. NNPC’s ability to increase deliveries is also limited because crude oil production by NNPC and its partners has generally declined, falling from a peak of 2.4 million barrels per day in 2005 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024.
NNPC has committed much of its output to service deals with financial lenders, leaving the refinery to import crude from countries like the US and the Middle East.
This is the central structural irony: Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil producer, yet its flagship domestic refinery cannot get adequate Nigerian crude. The NNPC has pledged future oil production to international creditors, leaving Dangote to compete on the open international market like any other buyer — paying full dollar prices.
FINDING 4: ON THE SPECIFIC PRICE HIKE — THE NUMBERS ARE PARTIALLY JUSTIFIED, BUT ALSO PARTIALLY QUESTIONABLE
The refinery’s price increase is tied to a genuine surge in global Brent crude prices driven by Middle East conflict. Benchmark Brent prices rose by about 26% within a short period to above $84.0 per barrel. The refinery implemented a price adjustment of N100 per litre and says it has absorbed 20% of the total cost escalation to cushion the domestic market.
However, a sharp contradiction emerged simultaneously. Data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) showed that the landing cost of imported petrol stood at N809.37 per litre, about N64 cheaper than Dangote Refinery’s N874 per litre gantry price — and that was before the refinery added another N121 to reach N995.
This data point is damning. If imported petrol — which must cross oceans, pay shipping costs, and clear Nigerian ports — still lands cheaper than Dangote’s gantry price, it suggests the refinery’s cost pass-through to consumers may include more than just raw crude and freight costs. It may also include capital recovery costs on a $20 billion investment, operational inefficiencies, and margin protection.
FINDING 5: THE REFINERY IS SIMULTANEOUSLY EXPORTING, EVEN AS IT RAISES DOMESTIC PRICES
Since starting operations, the refinery’s supply has found its way into growing international markets including neighboring African countries, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia — and in 2025, it made its first petrol shipment to the United States.
The fact that the refinery is exporting product to international markets while simultaneously raising prices for Nigerian consumers and citing global cost pressures deserves scrutiny. While the refinery has the commercial right to operate this way under deregulation, Nigerians are right to ask whether “prioritizing the domestic market” — a phrase Dangote’s management uses frequently — is fully consistent with active export operations during a period of domestic price surges.
EDITORIAL VERDICT: PARTIALLY JUSTIFIED, BUT STRUCTURALLY BROKEN
The price increase has genuine economic grounding, but it exposes a much larger failure of Nigerian energy policy.
Dangote’s core argument — that it is exposed to international crude prices — is verified and accurate. The refinery is not, in any practical sense, a purely domestic crude processor. It sources the majority of its crude internationally, pays dollar prices, and operates in a fully deregulated market. Under those conditions, global price shocks will always pass through to Nigerian consumers.
However, several uncomfortable truths also stand:
– The promise that a domestic refinery would insulate Nigeria from global fuel price volatility has not materialized, because NNPC has failed to supply adequate local crude at preferential rates.
– Imported petrol is currently landing cheaper than Dangote’s product, which undermines the narrative that local refining is always cheaper for Nigerians.
– The Nigerian state — through NNPC’s failures, the naira’s weakness, and the PIA’s unimplemented crude supply obligations — is largely responsible for the structural conditions forcing Dangote to this price level.
– And critically: Nigerians are being asked to absorb international crude price shocks from a refinery they were told would end exactly that dependency.
The price hike is not fraudulent. But it is a symptom of a broken system — one that Dangote did not create, but which he now benefits from commercially, and which the Nigerian government has shown little urgency to fix.
Business
NIMASA to Launch Mandatory Registration Portal to Curb Foreign Takeover of Nigerian Shipping Agents Business
NIMASA to Launch Mandatory Registration Portal to Curb Foreign Takeover of Nigerian Shipping Agents Business
By Okeoghene Onoriobe, Waterways News Correspondent, Lagos
The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) has announced plans to establish a dedicated Shipping Business and Registration Unit at the Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy, as part of measures to end the growing foreign encroachment into shipping agency operations — a sector long reserved for Nigerian indigenes.
NIMASA Director-General, Dr. Dayo Mobereola, disclosed this during a stakeholders’ engagement meeting organised by the Ministry in Lagos on Thursday.
Dr. Mobereola said the agency had observed with grave concern the increasing penetration of foreigners into aspects of ports and shipping business that are exclusively meant for Nigerian operators, including shipping agency and freight forwarding services — sectors where indigenous practitioners have long raised alarm.
“We need to establish a mandatory registration and licensing portal for Nigerian shipping agents. They would be the only ones with the rights to operate in the Nigerian shipping industry,” the NIMASA boss declared.
He added that the agency had also uncovered a troubling pattern where foreign nationals were registering companies through Nigerian fronts to circumvent existing rules.
“We noticed that these foreigners are registering companies with the assistance of Nigerians. The purpose here is to eliminate such acts and help us develop the Nigerian shipping sector — most importantly the shipping agents sector — to make it more economically friendly and create jobs for Nigerians,” he said.
Dr. Mobereola confirmed that the new department would be established soon, pending approval from the Honourable Minister of Marine and Blue Economy.
The proposed unit is expected to bring structure and legal clarity to a space that industry stakeholders say has been undermined for years by the activities of foreign interests — often operating covertly through proxy arrangements with local collaborators.
Waterways News gathered that the move has been broadly welcomed by indigenous shipping practitioners who have consistently called on regulatory authorities to enforce indigenisation policies in the maritime sector.
Waterways News — Nigeria’s Foremost Maritime Industry Publication | www.waterwaysnews.ng
NPA BOSS: PORT CONCESSION RENEWALS DELAYED FOR THOROUGH REVIEW, NOT NEGLIGENCE
Dantsoho says flawed agreements could create bigger problems; urges ICD operators to adapt to changing market realities
By Okeoghene Onoriobe | Waterways News Correspondent, Lagos
The Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) has broken its silence on the prolonged delay in renewing seaport concession agreements, attributing the hold-up to an ongoing comprehensive review designed to strengthen contractual frameworks and shore up investor confidence.
Speaking to maritime journalists in Lagos, NPA Managing Director Abubakar Dantsoho said the Federal Government is deliberately prioritising the correction of structural deficiencies in existing agreements before any renewals are approved — a signal that the administration is unwilling to repeat the contractual pitfalls that have dogged Nigeria’s port sector for nearly two decades.
Background: Contracts Running Out
Nigeria’s seaports were handed over to private terminal operators in 2006 under the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, with concession agreements ranging between 10 and 25 years. With many of those contracts now expired or expiring, uncertainty has deepened across the terminal operating community, with concessionaires growing increasingly anxious over the absence of fresh agreements.
“Get It Right” — Dantsoho
Dantsoho acknowledged the frustrations of terminal operators but held firm that quality must take precedence over speed. Both the NPA and concessionaires, he said, have identified unmet obligations on various sides — issues that must be resolved upfront to prevent costly disputes down the line.
“The focus is to get it right. A flawed agreement could create bigger problems later, while a well-structured one will provide long-term stability,” the NPA chief stated.
He also pushed back against the notion that slow processing undermines investor appeal, arguing that serious investors value legal clarity and contractual certainty far more than the pace of execution. A rigorous review, he noted, could even attract fresh investors should any existing operators choose not to renew.
ICD Operators Told to Restrategise
On the question of inland container depots (ICDs) and bonded terminals, Dantsoho issued a pointed advisory: adapt or risk irrelevance. He noted that while such facilities were critical pressure valves during periods of severe port congestion, the progressive easing of gridlock at Nigeria’s major ports has begun to erode the commercial rationale for their current operating models. Operators, he warned, must restrategise to remain competitive in a shifting maritime landscape.
NIGERIA WATCH: What this means for terminal operators, freight forwarders, and port stakeholders
The NPA’s position on concession renewals has far-reaching implications for virtually every layer of Nigeria’s maritime supply chain.
For terminal operators at Apapa, Tin Can Island, and the emerging Lekki Deep Sea Port, the delay introduces commercial uncertainty — investment decisions on equipment, berth upgrades, and staffing are difficult to commit to without clarity on tenure. Some operators are believed to be operating on tacit month-to-month arrangements, a situation that discourages capital expenditure.
For freight forwarders and shippers, stability of terminal operations directly affects cargo handling efficiency, tariff predictability, and turnaround times. Protracted uncertainty at the operator level has a downstream effect on the cost of doing business through Nigerian ports.
The NPA’s hint that new investors could enter if existing concessionaires step aside is significant. It opens the door to fresh capital and potentially more competitive terminal management — but only if the review produces the legally watertight agreements Dantsoho is promising.
On ICDs and bonded terminals, the warning is clear: the congestion-driven business model of the past is fading. As the NPA and the Nigerian Shippers’ Council (NSC) continue to push efficiency reforms, facilities that once thrived on cargo diversion and storage overflow must find new value propositions — whether in last-mile logistics, warehousing, or value-added trade facilitation services.
The Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy and NIMASA will also be watching closely, as the outcome of the concession review will set the template for how Nigeria manages its blue economy assets going forward — and whether the country can finally position its ports as competitive gateways in the West African sub-region.
NSW Opens Apapa Support Centre as Digital Trade Platform Goes Live
By Emetena Ikuku, Waterways News Correspondent
LAGOS — The management of Nigeria’s National Single Window (NSW) has established a dedicated stakeholder support centre at 34 Wharf Road, Apapa, following the go-live of the country’s long-awaited digital trade facilitation platform last Friday.
The NSW platform — a Federal Government initiative to consolidate all port-related documentation and regulatory processes into a single digital environment — launched formally earlier in the week before transitioning to full commercial operations days later, marking a significant shift from pilot-phase testing to live deployment.
Support Centre Targets Smooth Onboarding
The Apapa facility is designed to assist port operators, freight forwarders, customs agents and other stakeholders encountering difficulties navigating the new system. Its location on Wharf Road, at the heart of Nigeria’s busiest port corridor, is intended to ensure ease of access for users operating within the Apapa axis.
Beyond physical walk-in support, the NSW management has activated a multi-channel helpdesk offering assistance via telephone, WhatsApp and email to address operational issues and resolve platform inquiries.
Management urged stakeholders to utilise the available support services, noting that effective onboarding is central to realising the platform’s full trade facilitation potential.
Platform Aims to Cut Cargo Dwell Time
The NSW is engineered to eliminate manual documentation bottlenecks by integrating all port clearance, regulatory and compliance processes under one digital roof. Authorities say full deployment is expected to reduce the cost of doing business at Nigerian ports and accelerate cargo throughput — objectives that have long ranked among the priorities of the Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy.
Nigeria Watch
The go-live of the National Single Window carries direct implications for operators across the Nigerian port ecosystem. At Apapa and Tin Can Island — where manual documentation cycles and fragmented agency interactions have historically inflated cargo dwell times — the platform’s ability to centralise clearance processes could offer meaningful efficiency gains for importers, freight forwarders and terminal operators alike.
For the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) and the Nigerian Shippers’ Council (NSC), seamless NSW adoption among port users will be a key indicator of whether the digital trade agenda translates into measurable reductions in port congestion and logistics costs. NIMASA, whose regulatory mandate intersects with vessel and cargo documentation, will also have a stake in the platform’s integration architecture.
Freight forwarding associations and licensed customs agents — many of whom remain accustomed to manual and semi-manual clearance pathways — will likely represent the largest onboarding challenge. The placement of the support centre on Wharf Road, rather than at a government ministry or agency complex, signals a deliberate effort to meet practitioners where they operate.
The NSW’s full commercialisation also arrives against the backdrop of broader port reform efforts, including ongoing concession reviews and the Federal Government’s push to position Nigerian ports as competitive West African trade hubs. Whether the platform achieves critical mass adoption in its early weeks will depend heavily on the responsiveness of the helpdesk infrastructure now being put to the test.
Waterways News | Lagos
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