Business
INVESTIGATIVE REPORT: Does Dangote Refinery Have Genuine Grounds to Raise Petrol Prices to N995/litre?
INVESTIGATIVE REPORT: Does Dangote Refinery Have Genuine Grounds to Raise Petrol Prices to N995/litre?
By Oghenewoke Onoriode | Waterways News Research Reporter| March 7, 2026
THE CENTRAL QUESTION
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s justification for a N221 price hike within four days rests on one foundational claim: that it sources crude at international market prices and is therefore exposed to global oil price shocks. Our investigation finds this claim to be substantially true — but also structurally problematic, and one that raises serious questions about Nigeria’s energy policy failures, not just the refinery’s pricing decisions.
FINDING 1: THE REFINERY IS NOT PURELY DOMESTIC IN ITS CRUDE SOURCING — FAR FROM IT
This is perhaps the most critical finding of this investigation, and one the refinery does not loudly advertise in its public statements.
Dangote Refinery currently receives only five crude oil cargoes per month from NNPC — less than half of the 13 it needs to sustain full domestic supply. The shortfall of eight cargoes is sourced from other suppliers outside the country.
The scale of this foreign dependence is staggering. In 2025, the refinery bought approximately one-third of its crude from the United States, the lion’s share being West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Midland — sourced from crude fields around Midland, Texas, roughly 6,500 miles away.
“By mid-to-late 2025, U.S. crude had come to dominate the refinery’s feedstock mix for an extended period spanning several months, consistently outpacing Nigerian grades as the primary source of crude supply to the facility.”
In other words, this is not a local refinery sourcing local crude in any meaningful or sufficient sense. A refinery importing the majority of its feedstock from Texas and the Middle East, and paying for it in U.S. dollars at international market rates, is — by every economic measure — as exposed to global crude price shocks as any importer of finished petroleum products.
FINDING 2: EVEN THE NIGERIAN CRUDE IT BUYS IS PRICED AT INTERNATIONAL RATES — PLUS A PREMIUM
This is where the story gets even more complex. One might assume that the five monthly NNPC cargoes Dangote does receive are priced at a discounted or locally negotiated naira rate. They are not.
The cargoes received from NNPC under the naira-for-crude arrangement are priced at international market rates plus a premium. Nigerian crude oil costs $3 to $6 more per barrel above the Brent benchmark price. After adding freight of $3.50 per barrel, crude lands in Dangote’s tanks at between $88 and $91 per barrel.
For the additional eight cargoes sourced internationally, the refinery procures foreign exchange at open market rates to pay for crude purchased from local and international traders. Nigeria’s upstream producers have also failed to supply crude to the refinery as required under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), forcing the company to source a substantial portion through international traders who charge an additional premium.
This means there is essentially no subsidized or preferential pricing for Dangote despite the refinery being on Nigerian soil. Every barrel it processes costs it close to or above the full international market rate.
FINDING 3: THE NNPC’S SYSTEMIC FAILURE IS A ROOT CAUSE THE PUBLIC IS NOT BEING TOLD CLEARLY ENOUGH
NNPC has an economic incentive to sell its crude oil on international markets rather than to Dangote, because revenue from crude sales to the refinery is denominated in naira — a currency that has weakened relative to the U.S. dollar. NNPC’s ability to increase deliveries is also limited because crude oil production by NNPC and its partners has generally declined, falling from a peak of 2.4 million barrels per day in 2005 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024.
NNPC has committed much of its output to service deals with financial lenders, leaving the refinery to import crude from countries like the US and the Middle East.
This is the central structural irony: Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil producer, yet its flagship domestic refinery cannot get adequate Nigerian crude. The NNPC has pledged future oil production to international creditors, leaving Dangote to compete on the open international market like any other buyer — paying full dollar prices.
FINDING 4: ON THE SPECIFIC PRICE HIKE — THE NUMBERS ARE PARTIALLY JUSTIFIED, BUT ALSO PARTIALLY QUESTIONABLE
The refinery’s price increase is tied to a genuine surge in global Brent crude prices driven by Middle East conflict. Benchmark Brent prices rose by about 26% within a short period to above $84.0 per barrel. The refinery implemented a price adjustment of N100 per litre and says it has absorbed 20% of the total cost escalation to cushion the domestic market.
However, a sharp contradiction emerged simultaneously. Data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) showed that the landing cost of imported petrol stood at N809.37 per litre, about N64 cheaper than Dangote Refinery’s N874 per litre gantry price — and that was before the refinery added another N121 to reach N995.
This data point is damning. If imported petrol — which must cross oceans, pay shipping costs, and clear Nigerian ports — still lands cheaper than Dangote’s gantry price, it suggests the refinery’s cost pass-through to consumers may include more than just raw crude and freight costs. It may also include capital recovery costs on a $20 billion investment, operational inefficiencies, and margin protection.
FINDING 5: THE REFINERY IS SIMULTANEOUSLY EXPORTING, EVEN AS IT RAISES DOMESTIC PRICES
Since starting operations, the refinery’s supply has found its way into growing international markets including neighboring African countries, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia — and in 2025, it made its first petrol shipment to the United States.
The fact that the refinery is exporting product to international markets while simultaneously raising prices for Nigerian consumers and citing global cost pressures deserves scrutiny. While the refinery has the commercial right to operate this way under deregulation, Nigerians are right to ask whether “prioritizing the domestic market” — a phrase Dangote’s management uses frequently — is fully consistent with active export operations during a period of domestic price surges.
EDITORIAL VERDICT: PARTIALLY JUSTIFIED, BUT STRUCTURALLY BROKEN
The price increase has genuine economic grounding, but it exposes a much larger failure of Nigerian energy policy.
Dangote’s core argument — that it is exposed to international crude prices — is verified and accurate. The refinery is not, in any practical sense, a purely domestic crude processor. It sources the majority of its crude internationally, pays dollar prices, and operates in a fully deregulated market. Under those conditions, global price shocks will always pass through to Nigerian consumers.
However, several uncomfortable truths also stand:
– The promise that a domestic refinery would insulate Nigeria from global fuel price volatility has not materialized, because NNPC has failed to supply adequate local crude at preferential rates.
– Imported petrol is currently landing cheaper than Dangote’s product, which undermines the narrative that local refining is always cheaper for Nigerians.
– The Nigerian state — through NNPC’s failures, the naira’s weakness, and the PIA’s unimplemented crude supply obligations — is largely responsible for the structural conditions forcing Dangote to this price level.
– And critically: Nigerians are being asked to absorb international crude price shocks from a refinery they were told would end exactly that dependency.
The price hike is not fraudulent. But it is a symptom of a broken system — one that Dangote did not create, but which he now benefits from commercially, and which the Nigerian government has shown little urgency to fix.
Blue Economy
DANGOTE Activates Olokola Deep Seaport Plan — and Nigeria’s Maritime Landscape May Never be the Same
DANGOTE Activates Olokola Deep Seaport Plan — and Nigeria’s Maritime Landscape May Never be the Same
With a 10,000-hectare footprint straddling Ogun and Ondo states, the proposed Olokola Deep Seaport dwarfs every existing port facility in the country and signals a private-sector-led revolution in Nigeria’s blue economy
By Okeoghene Onoriobe | Waterways News Correspondent
Nigeria’s perpetually congested port landscape — defined for decades by the cramped berths of Apapa and Tin Can Island, the chronic gridlock on Wharf Road, and the unmet promise of Lekki Deep Seaport — may be on the cusp of its most dramatic transformation yet. Dangote Industries Limited has formally commenced preliminary processes for the development of what its officials are billing as a potential game-changer for African maritime trade: a 10,000-hectare deep seaport at the Olokola Free Trade Zone (OKFTZ), straddling the border of Ogun and Ondo states along the Atlantic coastline.
To fully appreciate the scale of what is being proposed, consider this: the development spans more than 10,000 hectares across Ogun Waterside Local Government Area of Ogun State and extends into Ilaje Local Government Area of Ondo State along the Gulf of Guinea coastline. Nigeria Ports Authority’s Apapa port complex — still the country’s busiest gateway and the artery through which the overwhelming bulk of Nigeria’s containerised imports flow — occupies roughly 81 hectares. Tin Can Island Port, its equally strained neighbour, sits on approximately 84 hectares. The Olokola project, if developed to its full envisaged footprint, would be more than 100 times larger than either of those facilities. This is not a port expansion. This is, in effect, an entirely new maritime industrial city to be carved out of Nigeria’s Atlantic coastline.
A Vision Rooted in $100 Ambition
The project sits at the heart of the Olokola Free Trade Zone on the Atlantic coast along the Gulf of Guinea. Dangote Industries is positioning it as the logistics backbone of its ambition to achieve $100 billion in annual revenue, secure a top-100 global ranking, and reshape Africa’s industrial landscape by 2030. (Marketing Edge)
That ambition, formalised as the group’s “Vision 2030” strategy, has already produced Africa’s largest petroleum refinery, a massive fertiliser complex, and an increasingly vertically integrated industrial conglomerate. The Olokola Deep Seaport is conceived as the crowning logistics infrastructure that would bind all of those assets together under one export-capable gateway — reducing the group’s dependence on third-party port operators and the chronically congested Lagos port system.
The facility is expected to support exports of fertilisers, petrochemicals and refined petroleum products, as well as facilitate future liquefied natural gas exports and the importation of heavy industrial equipment.
For port operators, shipping lines, freight forwarders and logistics companies currently navigating the impossible geometry of Apapa, this is a development with direct and far-reaching implications.
Capt. Jamil Abubakar Leads Community Engagements
A delegation from Dangote Industries Limited, led by Managing Director of Infrastructure and Logistics, Capt. Jamil Abubakar, visited host communities in Ogun and Ondo states to begin stakeholder engagements ahead of project execution. The delegation was accompanied by surveyors and environmental consultants — a signal that the project has moved beyond boardroom discussion and into active pre-construction groundwork.
The team visited Ode-Omi community in Ogun State, as well as Araromi Seaside Kingdom and Igbokoda in Ondo State. The Lenuwa of Ode-Omi, Oba Folailu Adekunle Hassan (Oshotekun II), welcomed the project and approved the commencement of surveys and household enumeration. The Alara of Araromi Seaside Kingdom, Oba Adeoloye Olawole, also pledged support for the project.
Significantly, the delegation also visited the Nigerian Navy Forward Operating Base in Igbokoda, where military officials expressed support for the proposed development — a critical consultation given the maritime security dimensions of any major coastal port infrastructure project in Nigeria’s Gulf of Guinea littoral.
Capt. Abubakar was unambiguous about the project’s national significance. “The Olokola Port project is a major step in unlocking Nigeria’s economic potential, strengthening trade, alleviating pressure on existing ports, and fostering industrial growth. It will generate substantial opportunities for host communities through employment, business activities, and long-term development across both Ogun and Ondo states. With its strategic location, Olokola would serve as a key gateway for exports and imports, boosting Nigeria’s competitiveness in regional and global trade.”
A History of False Starts — and Why This Time Feels Different
The Olokola Free Trade Zone is not a new concept. According to previous disclosures by Aliko Dangote, the company had initially planned major industrial investments in the Olokola Free Trade Zone before suspending activities due to disputes and policy uncertainties under a previous Ogun State administration. However, the group has since renewed its interest following what it described as improved investment conditions and stronger state-level support for industrial projects.
In March 2025, Dangote announced plans to develop what he described as Nigeria’s largest port within the Olokola axis during a visit to Ogun State Governor Dapo Abiodun. Subsequent reports in July 2025 revealed that the company had submitted preliminary documentation to begin construction approvals for the seaport project. The latest round of community visits and surveying activities represents a meaningful acceleration of those earlier signals into concrete field action.
Presidential approval has also reportedly been secured. Reports indicate that President Bola Tinubu approved oil drilling activities in Ogun Waterside and cleared the Olokola Deep Seaport project for take-off — providing the highest-level political backing the project has yet received.
What It Means for Nigeria’s Ports Sector
For maritime industry stakeholders — terminal operators, shipping agents, freight forwarders, and the vessel owners who ply Nigeria’s coastal and inland waterways — the Olokola project raises several immediate and medium-term questions.
The relief of pressure on Lagos ports is the most cited benefit, and it is a genuine one. Apapa and Tin Can Island together handle the vast majority of Nigeria’s import cargo volumes, and their infrastructure was never designed for current throughput levels. Every major exporter of bulk commodities — refined petroleum, fertiliser, agricultural produce — currently competes for the same insufficient berths. A dedicated deep seaport expressly designed for Dangote’s export volumes would, in theory, free up significant capacity at the Lagos complex for other users.
The deep-water draft capabilities implied by the “deep seaport” designation are also significant. Nigeria’s existing ports impose draft restrictions that prevent the largest class of bulk and container vessels from calling directly — forcing transhipment through ports like Lomé, Abidjan and Tanger-Med. A properly developed deep seaport on the Ogun/Ondo coastline, if designed to accommodate Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) and ultra-large container ships, could fundamentally alter Nigeria’s competitive position as a direct-call destination on major shipping lanes.
The deep seaport is being designed as a logistics gateway for an integrated industrial ecosystem capable of supporting Africa’s regional commerce and supply chain network — language that suggests ambitions well beyond a captive export terminal for Dangote’s own products.
Nigeria Watch: The Broader Blue Economy Dimension
The Olokola announcement arrives at a moment when Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy is actively seeking the large-scale private investment that would give its blue economy policy framework tangible expression. The ministry and the Nigerian Ports Authority have both spoken repeatedly about the need to develop new port capacity outside the Lagos corridor — and Dangote’s move at Olokola, however early-stage, represents exactly the kind of private-sector initiative that aligns with that policy direction.
For the Nigerian Shippers’ Council and its freight stakeholders, the project’s long-term promise of competition in port services — even if initially a captive facility — is a welcome structural development.
For NIMASA, the regulatory implications of a privately owned deep seaport of this scale will require careful navigation: cabotage policy, vessel registration, and coastal trade licensing all intersect with a development of this nature.
For inland waterway operators, the Olokola coastline’s position along the Gulf of Guinea opens questions about feeder service connections — whether NIWA’s jurisdiction over connecting waterway routes will be properly coordinated with the port’s eventual hinterland logistics design, and whether local boat and barge operators can position themselves early for the cargo volumes a 10,000-hectare maritime industrial city would generate.
The project is, at present, still at the preliminary engagement and surveying stage. No construction timeline has been officially published, no terminal operator has been named, and the full capital structure of the multi-billion-dollar investment has not been disclosed.
The history of large-scale port proposals in Nigeria — from Badagry to Ibom — counsels measured expectations. But the Dangote name, the community buy-in, the military consultation, and the presidential clearance together suggest that Olokola has progressed further along the credibility curve than most of its predecessors.
Nigeria’s maritime sector is watching — and it should be.
Blue Economy
LAGFERRY Turns Lagos Waterways Into a Cinema, Screens Michael Jackson Biopic Aboard Adimu Orisha Barge
LAGFERRY Turns Lagos Waterways Into a Cinema, Screens Michael Jackson Biopic Aboard Adimu Orisha Barge
Agency partners Wave Media for ‘Cinema and Cruise’ event, signalling new frontier for waterway-based leisure and tourism in Lagos
By Okeoghene Onoriobe | Waterways News Correspondent
The Lagos State Ferry Services (LAGFERRY) has taken a bold step in repositioning the Lagos waterways as a destination for entertainment and tourism, hosting an exclusive movie screening event aboard its celebrated Adimu Orisha Barge on the creeks and coastal waters of Lagos State.
The event, tagged Cinema and Cruise and organised in collaboration with Wave Media, centred on the screening of Michael — the newly released biographical film chronicling the life, artistry, and legacy of the late American pop icon, Michael Jackson. The gathering drew a cross-section of Lagosians including movie enthusiasts, entertainment professionals, waterway passengers, and stakeholders from across the leisure and hospitality sectors.
Waterways as More Than a Corridor
Held against the backdrop of a glittering Lagos nightscape, the Cinema and Cruise event was designed to challenge and broaden the public’s perception of water transportation — positioning the Lagos waterways not merely as a commuter corridor, but as a viable venue for social, cultural, and recreational experiences.
Speaking at the event, LAGFERRY Managing Director, Hon. Ladi Balogun, said the screening aboard the Adimu Orisha Barge encapsulates the agency’s broader vision of making water transport an attractive and multidimensional proposition for Lagos residents and visitors alike.
“The movie viewing experience aboard the Adimu Orisha Barge reflects our agency’s vision of redefining commuting and leisure through safe, enjoyable, and customer-focused water transportation services,” Balogun stated. “There is absolutely no social event you can do on land that you cannot do on the waterways.”
The Managing Director also reaffirmed the Lagos State Government’s commitment to safety on the waterways, alongside ongoing efforts to expand and modernise the state’s water transportation infrastructure through innovation and sustainability.
There is absolutely no social event you can do on land that you cannot do on the waterways.”
Guests were treated to an evening of music, open-air networking, and sweeping panoramic views of the Lagos waterfront — a setting that reinforced the waterways’ growing status as an entertainment destination in its own right.
A Milestone in Waterway Diversification
The successful execution of the Cinema and Cruise event marks a notable milestone in LAGFERRY’s evolving strategy to diversify the use cases of Lagos waterways beyond mass transit. By introducing leisure and cultural programming aboard its vessels, the agency is quietly building the case for the waterways as a pillar of Lagos’s broader blue economy and urban tourism offering.
Nigeria Watch
What LAGFERRY’s ‘Cinema and Cruise’ Signals for the Blue Economy
For stakeholders in Nigeria’s blue economy — from terminal operators and ferry concessionaires to hospitality investors and urban planners — the LAGFERRY Cinema and Cruise event is more than a novelty. It is a policy signal worth tracking.
Lagos State has for years grappled with the challenge of driving modal shift from road to water transport. Infrastructure investment alone — new jetties, expanded ferry routes, modern vessels — has not been sufficient to overcome the cultural inertia that keeps commuters on congested roads. What is needed alongside hard infrastructure is a shift in perception: Lagosians must begin to see the waterways as desirable, not merely functional.
LAGFERRY’s foray into water-based entertainment is a calculated attempt to catalyse that shift. By anchoring a branded leisure experience to a waterway vessel, the agency is effectively marketing the waterway itself — not just the ferry ticket.
The commercial logic is sound: increased footfall on the waterways, driven by lifestyle events, directly supports the viability of regular ferry services and the concession ecosystem around them.
For investors in Lagos’s waterfront economy — hospitality developers, event companies, and water transport operators — the Cinema and Cruise model suggests an emerging market segment. River cruise dining, floating concerts, corporate hospitality events on barges, and waterway-based film or cultural festivals are all established revenue streams in waterfront cities globally. Lagos, with its extensive lagoon system and a young, experience-driven consumer base, is well-positioned to develop similar offerings.
The key enablers will be regulatory clarity from the Lagos State Waterways Authority (LASWA) on commercial event licensing for vessels, continued investment in jetty infrastructure at event-friendly locations, and safety oversight frameworks that can accommodate non-standard waterway activities. If LAGFERRY’s partnership model with Wave Media can be replicated and scaled, Cinema and Cruise may prove to be the proof of concept that unlocks private investment in Lagos waterway-based tourism — a segment the blue economy urgently needs.
Dangote Targets Olokola for Africa’s Biggest, Deepest Seaport; Eyes Tanzania Port Deal
By Okeoghene Onoriobe | Waterways News Correspondent, Lagos
Billionaire industrialist calls on African governments to open port sector to private capital as operational delays stifle trade
Africa’s richest man and President of the Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, has disclosed that the proposed Olokola Port in Ogun State will be developed into the largest and deepest seaport on the African continent, with the project expected to break ground this year pending Federal Government approval.
Dangote made the disclosure on Monday on the sidelines of the Board of Directors meeting of the Port Management Association of West and Central Africa (PMAWCA) held in Lagos, where he also called for a fundamental shift in how African governments approach port infrastructure development — urging them to cede greater ownership and operational responsibility to private investors.
Private Sector as the Engine of Port Growth
The billionaire industrialist argued forcefully that port development across Africa has been held back by excessive reliance on government-led investment, insisting that private capital — not public funds — must now drive the sector’s transformation.
It is not really the job of governments to build and run ports alone,” he told journalists. “The private sector should create those investments, invest heavily, while governments focus on regulation and revenue collection.”
Dangote contended that persistent operational inefficiencies at ports across the continent — including prolonged vessel waiting times and chronic infrastructure gaps — were creating serious hardships for manufacturers and investors. He said these bottlenecks underscored the urgency of attracting private participation into maritime infrastructure.
“A lot of ports in Africa still face serious operational delays. Some vessels wait for days, and this is making business very difficult. One of the key recommendations I have made is that governments should encourage more private sector investment in port infrastructure,” he stated.
Olokola: A Continental Landmark in the Making
At the heart of Dangote’s maritime ambitions is the Olokola Port project, which he described as a transformational facility set to redefine cargo throughput, logistics efficiency and vessel handling capacity across West Africa and the continent at large.
“We announced that we are building the Olokola Port. We are going to build the largest and deepest seaport in Africa, and that will happen in Olokola,” Dangote affirmed.
He said the Dangote Group had finalised plans for the project and was awaiting regulatory clearance from the Federal Government before mobilising for construction. “We are hoping to start this year, if we get approval. As soon as we receive approval from the government, we will move ahead with the project,” he said.
Olokola, straddling the Ogun–Ondo boundary in southwestern Nigeria, has long been eyed as a deep-water port location given its natural harbour depth and proximity to the Atlantic shipping lane. A Dangote-backed facility at that site would significantly alter Nigeria’s port capacity map, potentially rivalling established West African deep-water competitors such as Lomé, Abidjan and Tema.
Tanzania Port Deal Also on the Table
Beyond Nigeria, Dangote confirmed that the group is simultaneously advancing a major port project in Bagamoyo, Tanzania, signalling the conglomerate’s intent to establish a continent-wide maritime infrastructure footprint.
He disclosed that talks with Tanzanian authorities were progressing well following a recent visit to the East African nation. “We are also working on another port in Bagamoyo, Tanzania. I just came back from there yesterday, and we are engaging with them. Once approvals come through, we will proceed,” he said.
Bagamoyo, located north of Dar es Salaam, has previously been identified as a strategic gateway for East African trade, with Chinese-backed infrastructure proposals having stalled in recent years. A Dangote entry into that market would mark a significant pivot toward Nigerian private capital competing at the continental level.
Port Infrastructure Now a Strategic Pillar for Dangote Group
Dangote indicated that port infrastructure would henceforth rank alongside cement, fertiliser, petrochemicals and logistics as a core pillar of the group’s continental growth strategy.
“Port infrastructure is now one of the key sectors for the Dangote Group, and we are going to pursue it aggressively,” he affirmed.
The PMAWCA Board of Directors meeting, which brought together port authority chiefs and maritime officials from West and Central Africa, provided the forum for Dangote’s remarks — lending regional weight to his advocacy for private-sector-led port reform at a moment when Nigeria’s own port concession framework faces fresh scrutiny.
Nigeria Watch: Analysis for terminal operators, freight forwarders, shipowners and regulatory stakeholders
Dangote’s Olokola announcement arrives at a politically charged moment for Nigeria’s port development landscape. The Federal Government’s port concession renewal process — covering key facilities at Apapa, Tin Can Island and other NPA-managed terminals — remains mired in uncertainty, with several existing concessionaires operating on expired or informally extended agreements while fresh terms are yet to be concluded.
Against that backdrop, the prospect of a privately-financed greenfield deep-water port at Olokola introduces a new competitive variable that terminal operators, cargo owners and shipping lines will be watching closely. If the facility delivers on Dangote’s ambition of being Africa’s largest and deepest, it would materially shift the calculus for vessel calls currently routed through Lekki Deep Sea Port — itself still ramping up — and could attract ultra-large container vessels currently bypassing Nigeria for more accommodating regional ports.
For freight forwarders and importers, the key question is timing. Dangote’s conditional language — “if we get approval” — is a familiar refrain in Nigerian port project announcements, and the history of Olokola itself is one of protracted delays dating back to earlier development proposals. Whether the Federal Government’s regulatory machinery can process approvals swiftly enough to keep the conglomerate’s 2026 groundbreaking target alive remains an open question.
What is clear is that the Dangote Group’s formal entry into port infrastructure — backed by the group’s demonstrated capacity to execute at scale in the Lekki refinery complex — gives this announcement considerably more credibility than previous Olokola proposals. Stakeholders across the value chain would do well to monitor NPA and Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy signals on approvals in the weeks ahead.
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